Giancarlos Parady

This article analyzes factors affecting travel behavior changes at the individual level in light of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, in the context of non-binding self-restriction requests. In particular, this study focuses on the effects of risk perception and social influence. A panel web-survey was conducted targeting residents of the Kanto Region, including the Tokyo Metropolis. In addition to describing the observed patterns in behavioral change, we modeled behavioral changes of four key, no

An examination of model validation practices in the peer-reviewed transportation literature published between 2014 and 2018 reveals that 92% of studies reported goodness-of-fit statistics, and 64.6% reported some sort of policy-relevant inference analysis. However, only 18.1% reported validation performance measures, out of which 78% (14.2% of all studies) consisted of internal validation and 22% (4% of all studies) consisted of external validation. The proposition put forward in this paper is t

Abstract In this paper we review the academic transportation literature published between 2014 and 2018 to evaluate where the field stands regarding the use and misuse of statistical significance in empirical analysis, with a focus on discrete choice models. Our results show that 39% of studies explained model results exclusively based on the sign of the coefficient, 67% of studies did not distinguish statistical significance from economic, policy or scientific significance in their conclusions,

This study uses data from the 4th Nationwide Person Trip Survey to analyse the relation between the built environment, modal access preference at residential location and travel behaviour in Japan. By estimating random parameter count models, significant statistical associations were found between the built environment and preferences with non-work trip frequency by mode. Furthermore the effect of population density, car ownership and some access preference traits were found to be heterogeneous

In recent years, the compact city concept has become a paradigm of sustainable urban development under the premise that mixed-use, high-density cities can significantly reduce automobile dependency and promote the use of alternative modes. This claim, however, hinges on the existence of a true causal mechanism between the built environment and travel behavior. This study tackled the causality problem by using a propensity score approach but differed from previous studies in that this study relax

This article discusses the validation and implementation of a propensity score approach with continuous treatment to test the existence of a causal relationship between the built environment and travel behavior using cross-sectional data. The implemented methodology differs from previous applications in the planning literature in that it relaxes the binary treatment assumption, which polarizes the built environment into two extremes (e.g., urban vs suburban). The effectiveness of the proposed me

In recent years, the concept of compact cities has permeated the sustainability discourse under the premise that compact high density developments can effectively reduce car use levels and promote use of alternative modes such as transit and non-motorized means. However, these arguments hinge on the existence of a true causal mechanism between built environment and travel behavior. Using panel data from a survey on new movers to a high density mixed use development in the Kashiwanoha area, Chiba

Prompt evacuation is a key factor affecting survival. The effect of seawalls on evacuation decisions is an important policy consideration. More work is needed in disaster preparedness education and in the way tsunami warnings are given, taking into consideration the risk of forecast error. Priority should be given to promoting prompt evacuation and educating residents as to the uncertainty of tsunami forecasting, to ensure that residents do not ignore evacuation warnings due to false impressions