[论文解读] Can Renewable Energy Mitigate Inflationary Pressures from Energy Imports? Evidence from Türkiye

Emre Akusta|arXiv (Cornell University)|Mar 23, 2026

Market Dynamics and Volatility被引用 0

一句话总结

研究分析可再生能源是否能降低土耳其因能源进口而导致的通胀，发现能源进口和汇率将通胀推高，而可再生能源及其与进口的互动可降低通胀，且在若干估计量下结果稳健。

ABSTRACT

This study analyses the potential of renewable energy to reduce inflationary pressures arising from energy imports in Turkiye. Annual data for the period 1980-2022 are used in the analysis. In this study, unit root properties are examined using the Zivot-Andrews and Lee-Strazicich tests, both of which explicitly account for structural breaks. Cointegration is investigated via the Johansen and Hatemi-J cointegration tests. Long-run coefficients are subsequently estimated using the DOLS and FMOLS estimators. The robustness of the empirical findings is further assessed using the ARDL approach. In addition, an interaction term is constructed to measure the impact of renewable energy in alleviating inflationary pressures arising from energy imports. The results show that energy imports and exchange rate have an increasing impact on inflation, while renewable energy and the interaction term have a decreasing impact. DOLS, FMOLS, and ARDL results support each other. Moreover, in both models, the impact of renewable energy in mitigating inflationary pressures stemming from energy imports is stronger than the direct disinflationary impact of renewable energy.

研究动机与目标

• 提出政策问题：可再生能源是否能缓解土耳其因能源进口带来的通胀压力。
• 利用土耳其数据（1980–2022）建立通胀、能源进口、汇率与可再生能源之间的长期关系。
• 用多种计量方法（DOLS、FMOLS、ARDL）及结构断裂来检验结果的稳健性。
• 引入交互项以量化可再生能源在能源进口驱动的通胀中的调节效应。

提出的方法

• 使用能处理结构断裂的单位根检验（Zivot-Andrews、Lee-Strazicich）。
• 通过Johansen和Hatemi-J方法检验协整关系。
• 用DOLS和FMOLS估计长期系数。
• 将ARDL作为稳健性检验。
• 构建并估计一个交互项，衡量可再生能源对能源进口驱动通胀的调节效应。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 能源进口和汇率是否会在土耳其提高通胀？
• RQ2 可再生能源及其与能源进口的互动是否会降低通胀？
• RQ3 在DOLS、FMOLS和ARDL估计量下结果是否稳健？
• RQ4 可再生能源减轻能源进口引发的通胀的效应是否强于其直接的通胀抑制效应？

主要发现

• 能源进口和汇率对通胀具有正向影响。
• 可再生能源与交互项对通胀具有负向影响。
• DOLS、FMOLS和ARDL的结果彼此一致。
• 可再生能源对能源进口引发的通胀的缓解效应强于其直接的抑制通胀效应。