Korea University · Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Professor Kwanho Shin's research lab specializes in international macroeconomics, with a focus on the interplay between trade integration, financial globalization, demographic transitions, and economic growth in East Asia and OECD countries. The lab investigates how structural changes—such as intra-industry trade, aging populations, and capital reallocation—shape business cycle synchronization, risk sharing, and long-term output performance. A central theme is understanding the transmission channels of economic shocks across countries and sectors, particularly in the context of regional economic integration and aging societies.
Figures are computed from collected data and may differ slightly.
As trade integration deepens in East Asia, closer links among the business cycles of East Asian countries can be expected. Theoretically, however, increased trade could lead to either closer or looser business cycles across trading partners. This paper seeks to understand how the business cycles of 12 Asian economies have been influenced by increased trade among them. It finds that the increasing trade itself is not necessarily associated with an increased synchronization of their business cycle
In this paper we explore three important areas where deeper trade and financial integration in East Asia can influence: (1) business cycle co‐movements in the region, (2) the extent of risk sharing across countries and (3) price co‐movements across countries. We find evidence that trade integration enhances co‐movements of output but not of consumption across countries. Especially the fact that trade integration does not raise co‐movements of consumption as much as that of output is interpreted
Intersectoral shocks require resource reallocation across sectors while intrasectoral shocks require resource reallocation within sectors. A crucial difference between these shocks is that the former require much higher adjustment costs than the latter. Using accounting data to calculate returns on capital in manufacturing industries, I generate proxies for these shocks. I find that the magnitude of intrasectoral shocks is much greater than that of intersectoral shocks but intersectoral shocks e
Abstract In this paper, we investigate six channels through which population aging affects output growth per capita of 35 OECD countries where the old dependency ratio is already quite high. The six channels we consider are changes in: (i) physical capital; (ii) human capital; (iii) average working hours; (iv) labor participation rate; (v) age composition of 15–64 (the share of population aged between 15 and 64 years; and (vi) total factor productivity (TFP). We first confirm findings from previ
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