[论文解读] Active peer effects in residential photovoltaic adoption: evidence on impact drivers among potential and current adopters in Germany

Fabian Scheller, Sören Graupner+3 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|May 3, 2021

Smart Grid Energy Management被引用 4

一句话总结

本研究通过调查德国1,165名潜在及现有光伏（PV）采用者，探究了住宅光伏（PV）采用过程中主动同伴效应的影响。研究发现，同伴可信度（尤其是能力、可信赖度和亲和力）在所有决策阶段显著增强了信息获取与影响力，其作用超过地理邻近性，凸显了主观同伴质量在加速PV采用中的关键作用。

ABSTRACT

While the importance of peer influences has been demonstrated in several studies, little is known about the underlying mechanisms of active peer effects in residential photovoltaic (PV) diffusion. Empirical evidence indicates that the impacts of inter-subjective exchanges are dependent on the subjective mutual evaluation of the interlocutors. This paper aims to quantify, how subjective evaluations of peers affect peer effects across different stages of PV adoption decision-making. The findings of a survey among potential and current adopters in Germany(N=1,165)confirm two hypotheses. First, peer effects play a role in residential PV adoption: the number of peer adopters in the decision-maker's social circle has a positive effect on the decision-maker's belief that their social network supports PV adoption; their ascription of credibility on PV-related topics to their peers; and their interest in actively seeking information from their peers in all decision-making stages. Second, there is a correlation between the perceived positive attributes of a given peer and the reported influence of said peer within the decision-making process, suggesting that decision-makers' subjective evaluations of peers play an important role in active peer effects. Decision-makers are significantly more likely to engage in and be influenced by interactions with peers who they perceive as competent, trustworthy, and likeable. In contrast, attributes such as physical closeness and availability have a less significant effect. From a policymaking perspective, this study suggests that the density and quality of peer connections empower potential adopters. Accordingly, peer consultation and community-led outreach initiatives should be promoted to accelerate residential PV adoption.

研究动机与目标

• 量化住宅光伏采用决策过程中所有阶段的主动同伴效应。
• 考察主观同伴评价（如可信度、能力、可信赖度）如何影响同伴互动与采用决策。
• 比较同伴邻近性（地理距离）与同伴质量（主观特质）对信息获取与影响力的影响。
• 通过识别最能加速PV采用的同伴关系，为政策制定提供依据。
• 通过提供同伴影响动态的实证参数，支持基于代理的PV扩散建模。

提出的方法

• 对德国范围内1,165名潜在及现有PV采用者开展定量调查。
• 通过自我报告的社交网络中PV采用者数量及对同伴特质（能力、可信赖度、亲和力、亲密程度）的感知，衡量同伴效应。
• 通过报告的信息获取意图与行为，评估主动沟通行为。
• 使用多元回归模型分析同伴数量与质量对社会支持信念、可信度感知及信息获取行为的影响。
• 在不同决策阶段（认知、考虑、决策、采用）对数据进行分析。
• 控制人口统计与态度变量，以隔离同伴特质对行为的影响。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 决策者社交圈中PV采用者的数量在多大程度上影响其对社会网络支持PV采用的信念？
• RQ2 主观同伴特质（如能力、可信赖度）在多大程度上影响决策过程中主动向同伴获取信息的行为？
• RQ3 感知到的同伴特质与地理邻近性相比，在塑造PV采用决策中的同伴影响方面有何差异？
• RQ4 主动同伴效应在PV采用决策过程的不同阶段是否存在差异？
• RQ5 同伴的可信度与亲和力在决定同伴影响力强度方面发挥何种作用？

主要发现

• 决策者社交圈中PV采用者的数量显著增强了其对社会网络支持PV采用的信念。
• 与仅在地理上接近的同伴相比，决策者更有可能（超过两倍）向他们认为可信、有能力、可信赖且具有亲和力的同伴寻求信息。
• 感知到的同伴可信度（尤其是能力和可信赖度）在所有采用阶段对信息获取与决策影响力的影响，均强于地理邻近性。
• 同伴关系的质量，特别是感知到的可信赖度与亲和力，是主动同伴互动的更强预测指标，优于物理接近程度。
• 将同伴视为可信的决策者，无论处于决策旅程的哪个阶段，都更可能受到同伴讨论的影响。
• 本研究证实，主动同伴效应在数量上具有显著意义，其驱动力源于对同伴的主观评价，而不仅仅是被动地看到光伏系统。