[论文解读] An evaluation of empirical equations for assessing local scour around bridge piers using global sensitivity analysis

G. Gavriel, Maria Pregnolato+3 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Jan 12, 2026

Hydrology and Sediment Transport Processes被引用 0

一句话总结

本论文将八个经验性本地冲刷方程与USGS现场与实验数据进行对比，通过逐一敏感性分析与全局敏感性分析，识别影响参数并确定在现场条件下表现最佳的方程。

ABSTRACT

Bridge scour is a complex phenomenon combining hydrological, geotechnical and structural processes. Bridge scour is the leading cause of bridge collapse, which can bring catastrophic consequences including the loss of life. Estimating scour on bridges is an important task for engineers assessing bridge system performance. Overestimation of scour depths during design may lead to excess spendings on construction whereas underestimation can lead to the collapse of a bridge. Many empirical equations have been developed over the years to assess scour depth at bridge piers. These equations have only been calibrated with laboratory data or very few field data. This paper compares eight equations including the UK CIRIA C742 approach to establish their accuracy using the open access USGS pier-scour database for both field and laboratory conditions. A one-at-the-time sensitivity assessment and a global sensitivity analysis were then applied to identify the most significant parameters in the eight scour equations. The paper shows that using a global approach, i.e. one where all parameters are varied simultaneously, provides more insights than a traditional one-at-the-time approach. The main findings are that the CIRIA and Froehlich equations are the most accurate equations for field conditions, and that angle of attack, pier shape and the approach flow depth are the most influential parameters. Efforts to reduce uncertainty of these three parameters would maximise increase of scour estimate precision.

研究动机与目标

• 评估八个用于桥墩本地冲刷的经验方程，针对来自现场与实验条件的USGS公开数据进行对比。
• 应用逐一和全局敏感性分析来比较参数影响。
• 在现场条件下确定最准确的方程及驱动不确定性的关键参数。

提出的方法

• 将八个经验性冲刷方程（包括英国 CIRIA C742 方法）与USGS桥墩冲刷数据库进行对比。
• 执行逐一敏感性分析以对参数重要性进行排序。
• 应用全局敏感性分析以同时改变所有参数并评估对冲刷估算的整体影响。
• 识别最影响预测的参数（如攻角、墩体形状、近岸流深度）。
• 评估方程在现场条件与实验条件下的准确性。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 哪些经验性冲刷方程在现场（USGS）数据中的局部冲刷深度预测最准确？
• RQ2 逐一敏感性分析与全局敏感性分析在参数敏感性方面有何差异？
• RQ3 哪些参数在各方程中对冲刷估算影响最大？
• RQ4 现场条件是否更有利于 CIRIA C742 和 Froehlich 方程相对于其他方程？
• RQ5 在关键参数上降低不确定性如何提升预测精度？

主要发现

• 全局敏感性分析比逐一分析为冲刷方程提供更有见地的洞察。
• CIRIA 和 Froehlich 方程在现场条件下最为准确。
• 攻角、墩体形状与近岸流深度是跨方程最具影响力的参数。
• 降低这三参数的不确定性将最显著提升冲刷估算的精度。