[论文解读] Analyzing Vaccine Manufacturing Supply Chain Disruptions for Pandemic Preparedness using Discrete-Event Simulation

Robin Kelchtermans, Valentijn Stienen+3 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Feb 9, 2026

Supply Chain Resilience and Risk Management被引用 0

一句话总结

论文开发了一个将生产、QA/QC和原材料整合的离散事件仿真，用于量化疫苗制造中的中断并评估韧性投资，在一个mRNA案例研究中得到验证。

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical vulnerabilities in vaccine supply chains, highlighting the need for robust manufacturing for rapid pandemic response to support CEPI's 100 Days Mission. We develop a discrete-event simulation model to analyze supply chain disruptions and enables policymakers and vaccine manufacturers to quantify disruptions and assess mitigation strategies. Unlike prior studies examining components in isolation, our approach integrates production processes, quality assurance and control (QA/QC) activities, and raw material procurement to capture system-wide dynamics. A detailed mRNA case study analyzes disruption scenarios for a facility targeting 50 million doses: facility shutdowns, workforce reductions, raw material shortages, infrastructure failures, extended procurement lead times, and increased QA/QC capacity. Three main insights emerge. First, QA/QC personnel are the primary bottleneck, with utilization reaching 84.5% under normal conditions while machine utilization remains below 33%. Doubling QA/QC capacity increases annual output by 79.1%, offering greater returns than equipment investments. Second, raw material disruptions are highly detrimental, with extended lead times reducing three-year output by 19.6% and causing stockouts during 51.8% of production time. Third, the model shows differential resilience: acute disruptions (workforce shortages, shutdowns, power outages) allow recovery within 6 to 9 weeks, whereas chronic disruptions (supply delays) cause prolonged performance degradation.

研究动机与目标

• 在正常与中断条件下识别疫苗制造的系统级瓶颈。
• 量化中断情景如何影响生产性能和疫情应对能力。
• 评估缓解策略和韧性投资以提升疫苗供应链的鲁棒性。

提出的方法

• 在Julia中开发一个模块化的离散事件仿真模型，整合生产过程、QA/QC活动与原材料采购。
• 将随机 lead time、processing time、库存管理和QA/QC及材料的资源争用纳入仿真。
• 实现动态情景生成和并行重复以评估多种中断情景。
• 通过单元测试、专家面部验证和敏感性分析对模型进行验证。
• 提供一个决策支持框架，以比较缓解策略及其对KPI的影响。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 原材料采购中断和QA/QC人力资源限制如何相互作用，影响疫情响应期间的疫苗制造绩效？
• RQ2 在QA/QC瓶颈和材料提前期变异的情况下，哪些缓解策略最能有效提升韧性？

主要发现

• QA/QC人员是主要瓶颈，在正常条件下利用率为84.5%，而机器利用率仍低于33%。
• 将QA/QC能力加倍会使年产量增加79.1%。
• 原材料中断极为不利，延长的提前期将三年产量降低19.6%，并在生产时间的51.8%期间导致缺货。
• 急性中断（如人员短缺、关停、停电）可在6–9周内恢复，而慢性中断（供应延迟）会导致长期绩效下降。