[论文解读] Artificial Intelligence and its Role in Near Future

Jahanzaib Shabbir, Tarique Anwer|arXiv (Cornell University)|Apr 1, 2018

Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications参考文献 65被引用 80

一句话总结

一项调查，探讨当前的人工智能能力、与人类智能的差异、未解决的挑战、伦理、风险以及未来预测。

ABSTRACT

AI technology has a long history which is actively and constantly changing and growing. It focuses on intelligent agents, which contain devices that perceive the environment and based on which takes actions in order to maximize goal success chances. In this paper, we will explain the modern AI basics and various representative applications of AI. In the context of the modern digitalized world, AI is the property of machines, computer programs, and systems to perform the intellectual and creative functions of a person, independently find ways to solve problems, be able to draw conclusions and make decisions. Most artificial intelligence systems have the ability to learn, which allows people to improve their performance over time. The recent research on AI tools, including machine learning, deep learning and predictive analysis intended toward increasing the planning, learning, reasoning, thinking and action taking ability. Based on which, the proposed research intends towards exploring on how the human intelligence differs from the artificial intelligence. Moreover, we critically analyze what AI of today is capable of doing, why it still cannot reach human intelligence and what are the open challenges existing in front of AI to reach and outperform human level of intelligence. Furthermore, it will explore the future predictions for artificial intelligence and based on which potential solution will be recommended to solve it within next decades.

研究动机与目标

• 解释数字世界中的现代AI基础知识和代表性应用。
• 比较人类智能与人工智能并识别当前的局限性。
• 分析为何AI尚未达到人类水平的智能并概述未解决的挑战。
• 讨论AI的未来预测并提出未来几十年的潜在解决方案。

提出的方法

• 对学习、推理、感知和行动等AI概念的调查。
• 对人类与AI能力及局限性的批判性分析。
• 讨论知识表示、感知、学习、自然语言处理和规划作为AI组成要素。
• 评估未解决的挑战、风险，以及对负责任和混合AI方法的需求。
• 综合未来轨迹并提出安全AI开发的推荐方法。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 当前AI在关键子领域的能力与局限性是什么？
• RQ2 为何AI尚未达到人类水平的智能，主要障碍是什么？
• RQ3 哪些未解决的挑战与风险可能影响AI的近景与远景，以及如何缓解？
• RQ4 为引导AI负责任发展，未来方向和解决方案有哪些建议？

主要发现

• AI能够模仿某些人类任务，但仍然缺乏广泛学习、泛化和常识推理。
• 人在情感、创造力和灵活适应性方面与AI不同，这限制了AI达到人类智能的能力。
• 存在重大未解决的挑战，包括安全、伦理、失业、隐私和社会影响。
• 提出将神经方法与符号方法相结合的混合方法，作为实现更强能力和更易控的AI的路径。
• 本文讨论未来AI在各行业的应用并强调潜在的社会变革及风险。