[论文解读] Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030: The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence

Peter Stone, Rodney A. Brooks+15 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Oct 31, 2022

Ethics and Social Impacts of AI被引用 153

一句话总结

一份全面的 2022 年 arXiv 版本的 AI100 报告，概述 AI 可能在 2030 年影响社会的八个城市领域，目标是为公众决策、政策和研究提供信息。

ABSTRACT

In September 2016, Stanford's "One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence" project (AI100) issued the first report of its planned long-term periodic assessment of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on society. It was written by a panel of 17 study authors, each of whom is deeply rooted in AI research, chaired by Peter Stone of the University of Texas at Austin. The report, entitled "Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030," examines eight domains of typical urban settings on which AI is likely to have impact over the coming years: transportation, home and service robots, healthcare, education, public safety and security, low-resource communities, employment and workplace, and entertainment. It aims to provide the general public with a scientifically and technologically accurate portrayal of the current state of AI and its potential and to help guide decisions in industry and governments, as well as to inform research and development in the field. The charge for this report was given to the panel by the AI100 Standing Committee, chaired by Barbara Grosz of Harvard University.

研究动机与目标

• 提供对当前 AI 状态及其潜在影响的科学依据画像。
• 确定在不久的将来 AI 可能影响日常生活的八个城市域。
• 为产业、政府和研究方向提供信息，以引导负责任的 AI 发展。

提出的方法

• 在城市生活的八个领域进行结构化专家评估。
• 对当前 AI 能力、挑战和潜在轨迹的综合分析。
• 为决策者和研究人员在决策与优先排序方面提供指导。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 AI 可能在不久的将来影响城市生活的领域有哪些？
• RQ2 各领域中 AI 的当前能力、局限性和风险是什么？
• RQ3 政策制定者和研究人员应如何在各领域优先考虑 AI 开发与治理？
• RQ4 截至 2030 年，应该向公众传达关于 AI 潜在影响的哪些信息？

主要发现

• 预计 AI 将影响运输、家用与服务型机器人、医疗保健、教育、公共安全与安保、资源匮乏社区、就业与工作场所，以及娱乐。
• 报告旨在提供对 AI 状态与潜力的准确描绘，以指导产业、政府与研究领域的决策。
• 该研究旨在为决策制定、研究方向以及负责任的 AI 发展提供信息。