[论文解读] Avoiding the Crowd: Traveller Behaviour in Public Transport in the Age of COVID-19

Sanmay Shelat, Oded Cats+1 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Apr 22, 2021

Economic and Environmental Valuation参考文献 22被引用 4

一句话总结

本研究通过针对荷兰火车乘客的意愿选择实验，探讨了新冠疫情风险认知对公共交通行为的影响，揭示出两类截然不同的乘客群体：'新冠意识型'个体强烈规避拥挤和感染风险，而'感染无感型'乘客则对风险几乎不加关注。潜在类别模型识别出关键的行为差异，前者为减少一名车内乘客而愿意多等待8.75分钟，该结果可为后疫情时代交通系统的需求预测与政策设计提供依据。

ABSTRACT

Public transport ridership around the world has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Travellers are likely to adapt their behaviour to avoid the risk of transmission and these changes may even be sustained after the pandemic. To evaluate travellers' behaviour in public transport networks during these times and assess how they will respond to future changes in the pandemic, we conduct a stated choice experiment with train travellers in the Netherlands. We specifically assess behaviour related to three criteria affecting the risk of COVID-19 transmission: (i) crowding, (ii) exposure duration, and (iii) prevalent infection rate. Observed choices are analysed using a latent class choice model which reveals two, nearly equally sized traveller segments: 'COVID Conscious' and 'Infection Indifferent'. The former has a significantly higher valuation of crowding, accepting, on average 8.75 minutes extra waiting time to reduce one person on-board. Moreover, they demonstrate a strong desire to sit without anybody in their neighbouring seat and are quite sensitive to changes in the prevalent infection rate. By contrast, Infection Indifferent travellers' value of crowding (1.04 waiting time minutes/person) is only slightly higher than pre-pandemic estimates and they are relatively unaffected by infection rates. We find that older and female travellers are more likely to be COVD Conscious while those reporting to use the trains more frequently during the pandemic tend to be Infection Indifferent. Further analysis also reveals differences between the two segments in attitudes towards the pandemic and self-reported rule-following behaviour. The behavioural insights from this study will not only contribute to better demand forecasting for service planning but will also inform public transport policy decisions aimed at curbing the shift to private modes.

研究动机与目标

• 理解新冠疫情风险认知如何改变公共交通行为，特别是对拥挤、暴露时长和感染率的影响。
• 基于乘客对疫情相关风险的敏感度，识别出不同的乘客群体。
• 通过量化对疫情相关变化的行为反应，为公共交通服务规划与政策制定提供依据。
• 评估疫情引发的行为转变对公共交通需求与出行方式选择的长期影响。

提出的方法

• 在荷兰对火车乘客开展意愿选择实验，以在不同拥挤程度、暴露时长和感染率的情境下收集偏好数据。
• 应用潜在类别选择模型，识别乘客偏好中的未观测异质性，区分出两个截然不同的行为群体。
• 模型估算拥挤（车内乘客数）、暴露时长（候车与乘车时间）及流行感染率变化的边际效用。
• 通过参数估计量化时间价值与风险降低的价值，特别关注为减少拥挤而愿意支付的意愿。
• 通过分析人口统计学与行为协变量（如年龄、性别及疫情期间火车使用频率）对群体划分进行验证。
• 利用自我报告的规则遵守情况与疫情态度，进一步验证并 contextualize（语境化）行为群体。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 在疫情期间，乘客在选择公共交通时如何权衡拥挤、暴露时长与感染率？
• RQ2 对新冠风险高度敏感的乘客与不敏感的乘客之间，其关键行为差异是什么？
• RQ3 年龄、性别及火车使用频率等人口统计因素如何与风险认知和出行行为相关联？
• RQ4 自我报告的态度与规则遵守行为在多大程度上与意愿选择实验中观察到的出行选择一致？
• RQ5 这些行为群体对公共交通需求预测与政策干预有何启示？

主要发现

• '新冠意识型'群体为减少一名车内乘客而愿意多等待8.75分钟，表明其对拥挤有强烈规避倾向。
• '感染无感型'群体对拥挤的估值仅为每人1.04分钟，仅略高于疫情前估计值，显示其对拥挤的敏感度极低。
• '新冠意识型'乘客强烈偏好无邻座就座，表明其对近距离接触风险高度敏感。
• 年长及女性乘客显著更可能属于'新冠意识型'群体。
• 疫情期间使用频率较高的火车乘客更可能属于'感染无感型'，表明可能存在习惯化或随时间推移风险感知下降。
• 两个群体在自我报告的规则遵守行为与疫情态度方面存在显著差异，'新冠意识型'个体更可能遵守公共卫生措施。