[论文解读] Cascading Failure From Targeted Road Network Disruptions

Skanda Vivek|arXiv (Cornell University)|Oct 19, 2020

Complex Network Analysis Techniques被引用 1

一句话总结

本文基于微观交通仿真构建理论框架，预测城市路网中针对性的路网中断如何引发级联交通拥堵。研究发现，少数关键道路对最短时间路径的阻断作用远超其数量比例，级联拥堵在数分钟至数小时内迅速蔓延，尽管路径冗余显著提升了路网韧性。

ABSTRACT

Recent natural disasters have shown that urban road networks are susceptible to cascading failures as evidenced by city scale traffic jams. Further, the rise of internet connected vehicles and smart city infrastructure leads to the potential for hackers and nation states to target disruptions that maximize the potential for cascading failure. While cascading failure in networks have been studied extensively, the spatiotemporal nature of how cascades spread is lacking. Here, we quantify the potential for targeted disruptions on urban traffic networks. Guided by microscopic traffic simulations, we develop a theoretical framework for predicting the growth in cascading traffic jams around road disruptions. We apply our framework to the city of Boston using previously validated origin-destination pairs from cell phone location records. Application of our framework to Boston revels that a targeted disruption of roads leads to disproportionately large proportion of shortest time routes being blocked, due to the relative importance of a few key roads. We find that an initial targeted disruption quickly impacts a significant portion of incoming traffic. Depending on the percentage of initial disruption, vehicle density, and characteristic free flow trip time the cascade occurs on the minutes to hours timescale. However, connected component analysis reveals that route redundancy provides an order of magnitude improvement in fragility, demonstrating the potential for strengthening transportation against network failure.

研究动机与目标

• 理解针对性道路中断如何在城市交通网络中引发级联失效。
• 量化初始中断后级联交通拥堵的时空传播特征。
• 评估路径冗余在提升路网对针对性攻击脆弱性抵抗能力方面的作用。
• 将基于仿真的理论框架应用于波士顿的真实城市交通数据。

提出的方法

• 利用微观交通仿真模拟道路中断周围的交通动态。
• 构建理论框架以预测级联交通拥堵的扩展过程。
• 基于从手机定位数据中提取的经验证的起讫OD对，将该框架应用于波士顿路网。
• 采用连通分量分析评估路径冗余与路网韧性。
• 根据初始中断比例、车辆密度和自由流行程时间建模中断影响。
• 整合真实世界移动模式，以模拟现实的级联失效情景。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 针对性道路中断如何随时间在城市交通网络中传播？
• RQ2 哪些道路对最短时间路径可用性的影响最为不成比例？
• RQ3 初始中断后，级联失效在多长时间尺度内显现？
• RQ4 路径冗余如何影响城市路网对级联失效的脆弱性？
• RQ5 通过路径设计中的冗余，路网韧性最多可提升多少？

主要发现

• 关键道路的针对性中断因其在网络中的中心性，导致最短时间路径被阻断的比例远超其数量占比。
• 级联失效传播迅速，其发生时间尺度取决于中断程度、车辆密度和自由流行程时间，通常在数分钟至数小时内。
• 连通分量分析表明，路径冗余可使路网脆弱性降低一个数量级。
• 初始中断在数分钟内即显著影响进入交通流，表明对战略性攻击具有高度脆弱性。
• 基于仿真的理论框架成功预测了真实城市路网中级联交通拥堵的时空演化过程。
• 研究表明，即使小规模、针对性的中断，也可能因网络拓扑结构和路径依赖性而引发大规模的全网拥堵。