[论文解读] Cognitive Endurance, Talent Selection, and the Labor Market Returns to Human Capital

Germán Morong Reyes|arXiv (Cornell University)|Jan 6, 2023

Labor market dynamics and wage inequality被引用 8

一句话总结

本文分析学业能力与认知耐力如何影响大学结果与长期劳动力市场回报，利用大规模考试数据分解差距并评估考试时长对预测有效性的政策含义。

ABSTRACT

Cognitive endurance -- the ability to sustain performance on a cognitively-demanding task over time -- is thought to be a crucial productivity determinant. However, a lack of data on this variable has limited researchers' ability to understand its role for success in college and the labor market. This paper uses college-admission-exam records from 15 million Brazilian high school students to measure cognitive endurance based on changes in performance throughout the exam. By exploiting exogenous variation in the order of exam questions, I show that students are 7.1 percentage points more likely to correctly answer a given question when it appears at the beginning of the day versus the end (relative to a sample mean of 34.3%). I develop a method to decompose test scores into fatigue-adjusted ability and cognitive endurance. I then merge these measures into a higher-education census and the earnings records of the universe of Brazilian formal-sector workers to quantify the association between endurance and long-run outcomes. I find that cognitive endurance has a statistically and economically significant wage return. Controlling for fatigue-adjusted ability and other student characteristics, a one-standard-deviation higher endurance predicts a 5.4% wage increase. This wage return to endurance is sizable, equivalent to a third of the wage return to ability. I also document positive associations between endurance and college attendance, college quality, college graduation, firm quality, and other outcomes. Finally, I show how systematic differences in endurance across students interact with the exam design to determine the sorting of students to colleges. I discuss the implications of these findings for the use of cognitive assessments for talent selection and investments in interventions that build cognitive endurance.

研究动机与目标

• 通过将认知耐力与学业能力从人力资本组成部分中区分出来来为研究动机提供依据。
• 量化能力与耐力与大学成功及劳动力市场结果之间的关系。
• 评估耐力对不同群体在考试分数差距中的贡献。
• 评估考试设计变动（例如考试时长）对长期结果的预测有效性。

提出的方法

• 使用包含年龄、性别、种族和家庭控制变量的回归设定，估计能力、耐力与结果之间的关联。
• 控制队列、所在城市和大学学位固定效应，以 isolat 程序选择与经验效应。
• 将考试分数差距分解为归因于能力与耐力的部分。
• 使用 delta-method 标准误来计算比率与差距估计的不确定性。
• 使用 IV 方法处理再参加样本的潜在内生性，采用滞后变量作为工具变量。

Figure A1 : Examples of “focus support” products in a local CVS

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 认知耐力、学业能力与大学结果（如学位获得、入学）的关系是什么？
• RQ2 能力/耐力与劳动力市场结果（如工资、就业、职业、行业）的关系是什么？
• RQ3 在群体之间观察到的考试分数差距有多少可以用能力和耐力差异来解释？
• RQ4 若将考试时长减半的改革如何影响考试分数差距及其对长期结果的预测有效性？

主要发现

• 能力和认知耐力都与大学结果和劳动力市场结果呈正相关。
• 耐力对结果的贡献超出仅由学业能力所能捕捉的范围，比例效应指示出具有显著的独立价值。
• 群体之间的考试分数差距在部分由能力和耐力差异解释，两者都存在显著贡献。
• 将考试时长减半的改革降低了考试对长期结果的预测有效性，并在百分位与原始分数层面上改变了测量的差距。
• 本文提供了能力与耐力差距相对大小及其对人力资本投资含义的证据。