[论文解读] Comparing simulation output accuracy of discrete event and agent based models: a quantitative approach

Mazlina Abdul Majid, Uwe Aickelin+1 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Jul 13, 2009

Complex Systems and Decision Making参考文献 17被引用 20

一句话总结

本研究比较了离散事件模拟（DES）与基于代理的模拟（ABS）在零售运营中建模人类反应行为的适用性，以英国一家百货商店的试衣间为案例研究。两种方法在模拟员工与顾客行为方面均表现出相当的输出准确性，表明两者在评估管理政策变化方面具有同等潜力。

ABSTRACT

In our research we investigate the output accuracy of discrete event simulation models and agent based simulation models when studying human centric complex systems. In this paper we focus on human reactive behaviour as it is possible in both modelling approaches to implement human reactive behaviour in the model by using standard methods. As a case study we have chosen the retail sector, and here in particular the operations of the fitting room in the women wear department of a large UK department store. In our case study we looked at ways of determining the efficiency of implementing new management policies for the fitting room operation through modelling the reactive behaviour of staff and customers of the department. First, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our models to the performance of the real system. This experiment also allowed us to establish differences in output accuracy between the two modelling methods. In a second step a multi-scenario experiment was carried out to study the behaviour of the models when they are used for the purpose of operational improvement. Overall we have found that for our case study example both, discrete event simulation and agent based simulation have the same potential to support the investigation into the efficiency of implementing new management policies.

研究动机与目标

• 评估离散事件模拟（DES）与基于代理的模拟（ABS）在建模人类反应行为方面的输出准确性。
• 评估两种建模方法在通过政策模拟支持运营改进方面的有效性。
• 通过真实零售试衣间环境中的实际表现验证模型输出。
• 在受控的多场景实验中，对比两种方法在政策影响分析中的表现。

提出的方法

• 开展了一项真实世界验证实验，将模型输出与英国一家百货商店女装试衣间实际系统表现进行对比。
• 在DES和ABS框架中，均采用标准方法对顾客和员工的反应行为进行建模。
• 进行了多场景模拟实验，以评估不同管理政策实施下模型的行为表现。
• 通过将模拟结果与实际系统表现进行对比，评估模型的准确性。
• DES与ABS均采用相同的行为主逻辑，以确保公平比较。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 在零售环境中，离散事件模拟与基于代理的模拟在建模人类反应行为方面如何比较？
• RQ2 DES与ABS在与实际系统表现对比验证后，其输出准确性如何？
• RQ3 两种建模方法是否都能有效通过政策模拟支持运营改进？
• RQ4 在不同管理政策情景下，模型表现如何？

主要发现

• 在试衣间中建模人类反应行为时，离散事件模拟与基于代理的模拟在输出准确性方面表现相当。
• 验证实验证实，两种模型均准确反映了真实系统的表现。
• 多场景实验表明，两种方法在评估管理政策影响方面同样有效。
• 在相同行为主假设下，DES与ABS的模型输出准确性未表现出显著差异。