[论文解读] Gathering Strength, Gathering Storms: The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100) 2021 Study Panel Report

Michael L. Littman, Ifeoma Ajunwa+15 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Oct 27, 2022

Ethics and Social Impacts of AI被引用 142

一句话总结

AI100 2021 小组评估 AI 发展及其对社会的影响，回答了关于风险、公众认知及该领域未来的14个问题，并指出 AI 正从实验室迅速走向日常生活，需要更加紧迫地研究潜在负面影响。

ABSTRACT

In September 2021, the "One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence" project (AI100) issued the second report of its planned long-term periodic assessment of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on society. It was written by a panel of 17 study authors, each of whom is deeply rooted in AI research, chaired by Michael Littman of Brown University. The report, entitled "Gathering Strength, Gathering Storms," answers a set of 14 questions probing critical areas of AI development addressing the major risks and dangers of AI, its effects on society, its public perception and the future of the field. The report concludes that AI has made a major leap from the lab to people's lives in recent years, which increases the urgency to understand its potential negative effects. The questions were developed by the AI100 Standing Committee, chaired by Peter Stone of the University of Texas at Austin, consisting of a group of AI leaders with expertise in computer science, sociology, ethics, economics, and other disciplines.

研究动机与目标

• 评估 AI 发展及其对社会的关键风险领域。
• 了解 AI 对个人、机构与公众认知的影响。
• 预测 AI 领域未来的发展方向与治理需求。

提出的方法

• 由 17 人、跨学科的研究小组进行结构化评估。
• 小组回答了 AI100 常设委员会拟定的 14 个问题。
• 分析将计算机科学与社会学、伦理、经济学及其他学科相结合。
• 该报告建立在长期、定期的 AI 与社会评估框架之上。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 与 AI 开发和部署相关的主要风险和危险是什么？
• RQ2 AI 如何影响社会、机构和公众认知？
• RQ3 AI 的潜在负面影响是什么，如何理解并降低它们？
• RQ4 AI 研究、政策与治理的未来发展方向是什么？
• RQ5 随着 AI 从实验室走向日常生活，AI 领域应如何应对新出现的挑战？

主要发现

• 近年来，AI 已经从实验室跃升到人们的日常生活。
• 日益紧迫地需要了解 AI 的潜在负面影响。
• 报告将风险、治理需求和社会影响作为 AI 发展与政策的核心。
• 公众认知和伦理考量对评估 AI 发展轨迹至关重要。
• 多学科方法对于预见并应对 AI 未来挑战至关重要。