[论文解读] Germany's nationwide travel experiment in 2022: public transport for 9 Euro per month -- First findings of an empirical study

Allister Loder, Fabienne Cantner+9 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Jun 14, 2023

Transportation and Mobility Innovations被引用 5

一句话总结

本研究考察了德国2022年推出的9-Euro-Ticket，该全国性公共交通补贴政策允许每月支付9欧元即可无限次乘坐区域列车。研究基于三波调查与2,261名参与者的智能手机出行追踪，发现出行距离中有5%、出行频率中有7%从私家车转向公共交通，但结论指出，仅靠票价减免不足以确保可持续出行，还需配合其他政策。

ABSTRACT

In spring 2022, the German federal government agreed on a set of policy measures that aimed at reducing households' financial burden resulting from a recent price increase, especially in energy and mobility. These included among others, a nationwide public transport ticket for 9~Euro per month for three months in June, July, and August 2022. In transport policy research this is an almost unprecedented behavioral experiment. It allows us to study not only behavioral responses in mode choice and induced demand but also to assess the effectiveness of these instruments. We observe this natural experiment with a three-wave survey and a smartphone-based travel diary with passive tracking on an initial sample of 2,261 participants with a focus on the Munich metropolitan region. This area is chosen as it offers a variety of mode options with a dense and far-reaching public transport network that even provides good access to many leisure destinations. The app has been providing data from 756 participants until the end of September, the three-wave survey by 1,402, and the app and the three waves by 637 participants. In this paper, we report on the study design, the recruitment and study participation as well as the impacts of the policy measures on the self-reported and app-observed travel behavior; we present results on consumer choices for a successor ticket to the 9-Euro-Ticket that started in May 2023. We find a substantial shift in the modal share towards public transport from the car in our sample during the 9-Euro-Ticket period in travel distance (around 5 %) and in trip frequency (around 7 %). The mobility outcomes of the 9-Euro-Ticket however provide evidence that cheap public transport as a policy instrument does not suffice to incentive sustainable travel behavior choices and that other policy instruments are required in addition.

研究动机与目标

• 分析全国性低价公共交通票对德国出行方式选择与出行行为的影响。
• 评估9-Euro-Ticket是否引发了公共交通使用量的长期变化并减少对私家车的依赖。
• 评估公众对后续票务方案的支付意愿，以及扩大出行通行证持有率的潜力。
• 调查基于票价的激励措施在促进可持续出行和减少交通相关排放方面的有效性。
• 探讨在长期脱碳目标背景下，临时性全国性票价减免政策的政策影响。

提出的方法

• 对1,402名参与者开展三波纵向调查，收集票价政策实施前、期间和之后的自我报告出行行为数据。
• 对756名参与者部署基于智能手机的出行日记，通过被动的路径点追踪收集客观、实时的出行数据。
• 结合调查与应用数据，验证自我报告行为，并分析出行距离与频率的出行方式转变情况。
• 采用混合方法数据收集方式，评估出行行为变化，包括在近乎零票价条件下的需求诱导与出行方式选择。
• 以慕尼黑大都市区为案例研究，因其公共交通网络密集且出行选择多样。
• 利用9-Euro-Ticket实施期间及之后收集的调查数据，评估公众对后续票务的支付意愿。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 在出行距离与出行频率方面，9-Euro-Ticket在多大程度上促使人们从私家车出行转向公共交通？
• RQ2 公众对后续票务的支付意愿如何？其在不同地区和用户群体之间有何差异？
• RQ3 9-Euro-Ticket是否引发了公共交通使用量的长期变化，还是仅导致了临时性的行为反应？
• RQ4 该政策如何影响公众对公共交通的信任度，尤其是在疫情之后？
• RQ5 其他政策工具在维持票价减免对可持续出行影响方面发挥着何种作用？

主要发现

• 在9-Euro-Ticket实施期间，每日出行距离中有5%从私家车转向公共交通，表明出行方式发生了可测量的转变。
• 公共交通出行频率提高了7%，表明在补贴期间公共交通服务的使用率显著上升。
• 9-Euro-Ticket导致公共交通使用量显著但短暂上升，且在缺乏持续激励的情况下，无明显证据表明行为发生长期改变。
• 公众对后续票务的支付意愿较低，但如果同时提供配套的地方性出行通行证，慕尼黑地区出行通行证持有率可能提升最高达50%。
• 该政策并未整体减少交通拥堵，仅在热门旅游路线上观察到局部过度拥挤。
• 本研究结论指出，仅靠票价减免不足以实现可持续出行目标，必须辅以其他政策手段才能维持行为改变。