[论文解读] How many infections of COVID-19 there will be in the "Diamond Princess"-Predicted by a virus transmission model based on the simulation of crowd flow

Zhiming Fang, Zhongyi Huang+6 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Feb 25, 2020

COVID-19 epidemiological studies参考文献 12被引用 36

一句话总结

该论文使用基于人群流动的病毒传播模型来模拟 Diamond Princess 上的 COVID-19 传播，并估计 850–1009 次感染，分析防护措施与时机的影响。

ABSTRACT

Objectives: Simulate the transmission process of COVID-19 in a cruise ship, and then to judge how many infections there will be in the 3711 people in the "Diamond Princess" and analyze measures that could have prevented mass transmission. Methods: Based on the crowd flow model, the virus transmission rule between pedestrians is established, to simulate the spread of the virus caused by the close contact during pedestrians' daily activities on the cruise ship. Measurements and main results: Three types of simulation scenarios are designed, the Basic scenario focus on the process of virus transmission caused by a virus carrier and the effect of the personal protective measure against the virus. The condition that the original virus carriers had disembarked halfway and more and more people strengthen self-protection are considered in the Self-protection scenario, which would comparatively accord with the actual situation of "Diamond princess" cruise. Control scenario are set to simulate the effect of taking recommended or mandatory measures on virus transmission Conclusions: There are 850~1009 persons (with large probability) who have been infected with COVID-19 during the voyage of "Diamond Princess". The crowd infection percentage would be controlled effectively if the recommended or mandatory measures can be taken immediately during the alert phase of COVID-19 outbreaks.

研究动机与目标

• 促进对邮轮上 COVID-19 传播的评估，以理解爆发的潜在规模。
• 在航行期间估计 Diamond Princess 上 3711 名人员的总感染数。
• 分析个人防护措施和及时干预如何降低传播。

提出的方法

• 建立基于人群流动的行人与行人之间的病毒传播规则。
• 在邮轮日常活动中基于三种情景模拟病毒传播。
• 包含一个基本情景，聚焦于病毒携带者及个人防护的影响。
• 纳入一个自我防护情景，反映早期下船和增强自我防护。
• 创建一个控制情景，以模拟建议或强制措施的效果。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 在建模传输动力学下，Diamond Princess 的乘客中将发生多少感染？
• RQ2 在模拟环境中，个人防护措施对限制传播的影响如何？
• RQ3 更早或强制干预如何改变航程中的疫情结局？

主要发现

• 估计感染人数：850–1009 人（在航程期间大概率感染）。
• 如果在疫情警报阶段立即实施推荐或强制措施，群体感染比例可以被有效控制。
• 情景显示传播动力学因乘客行为和防护水平而异。
• 下船动态和增强自我防护影响 Self-protection 情景中的观测传播。
• 防护措施能够显著减缓所建模情景中的大规模传播。