[论文解读] How much of the Solar System should we leave as Wilderness?

Martin Elvis, Tony Milligan|arXiv (Cornell University)|May 24, 2019

Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life参考文献 23被引用 45

一句话总结

本文主张一项政策，将 Solar System 的 7/8 保留为荒野，采用 1/8 原则来限制开发并为指数级增长提供回旋余地。

ABSTRACT

"How much of the Solar System should we reserve as wilderness, off-limits to human development?" We argue that, as a matter of policy, development should be limited to one eighth, with the remainder set aside. We argue that adopting a "1/8 principle" is far less restrictive, overall, than it might seem. One eighth of the iron in the asteroid belt is more than a million times greater than all of the Earth's estimated iron reserves and may suffice for centuries. A limit of some sort is needed because of the problems associated with exponential growth. Humans are poor at estimating the pace of such growth, so the limitations of a resource are hard to recognize before the final three doubling times which take utilization successively from 1/8 to 1/4 to 1/2, and then to the point of exhaustion. Population growth and climate change are instances of unchecked exponential growth. Each places strains upon ouru available resources. Each is a problem we would like to control but attempts to do so at this comparatively late stage have not been encouraging. Our limited ability to see ahead suggests that we should set ourselves a 'tripwire' that gives us at least 3 doubling times as leeway, i.e. when 1/8 of Solar System resources are close to being exploited. At a 3.5 percent growth rate for the space economy, comparable to that of the iron use from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution until now, the 1/8 point would be reached after 400 years. At that point the 20 year doubling time of a 3.5 percent growth rate means that only 60 years would remain to transition the economic system to new "steady state" conditions. The rationale for adopting the 1/8 principle now is that it may be far easier to implement in principle restrictions at an early stage, rather than later, when vested and competing interests have come into existence.

研究动机与目标

• 推动一个政策框架，将太空开发限制在 Solar System 资源的 1/8。
• 论证早期限制比后来再限制既得利益更易执行。
• 在指数增长假设下量化资源可用性与时间框架。

提出的方法

• 提出关于 1/8 荒野规则的政策论证与理由。
• 利用指数增长的推理将资源枯竭与时间框架联系起来。
• 估算增长率情景（例如空间经济增长 3.5%）及相应的翻倍时间。
• 计算投影时间线：约 400 年达到 1/8 的开发，剩余约 60 年过渡到稳态。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 为 Solar System 资源的 1/8 保留为荒野的理由是什么？
• RQ2 太空活动的指数增长如何影响资源开发的时机与政策杠杆？
• RQ3 在指定增长率下达到近乎耗竭点的时间尺度是多少？

主要发现

• 1/8 规则意味着对 Solar System 资源的初始保留为 12.5%。
• 在 space economy 年增长率为 3.5% 时，约在 400 年后达到 1/8 点。
• 在该增长率下，20 年翻倍时间意味着大约 60 年过渡到新的稳态。
• 1/8 原则在显著资源开发前提供大约三个翻倍周期的缓冲。