[论文解读] Impact of COVID-19 on travel behaviour, transport, lifestyles and location choices in Scotland

Lucy Downey, Achille Fonzone+2 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Apr 21, 2021

Urban Transport and Accessibility参考文献 28被引用 11

一句话总结

本研究利用对苏格兰994名居民的全国代表性在线调查，调查了新冠疫情对出行行为、交通使用、生活方式及居住地选择的影响。研究发现，步行、驾车和公共交通使用量显著下降，受访者预计疫情结束后公共交通使用量将持续低迷，同时远程工作增加，居住偏好发生转变。

ABSTRACT

In March 2020, the UK and Scottish Governments imposed a lockdown restricting everyday life activities to only the most essential. These Governmental measures together with individual choices to refrain from travelling during the COVID-19 pandemic have had a profound effect on transport related activity. In the current investigation an online questionnaire was distributed to 994 Scottish residents in order to identify travel habits, attitudes and preferences during the different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and anticipated travel habits after the pandemic. Quota constraints were enforced for age, gender and household income to ensure the sample was representative of the Scottish population as a whole. Perceptions of risk, trust in information sources and compliance with COVID-19 regulations were determined together with changes in levels of life satisfaction and modal choice following the onset of COVID-19. In addition, survey responses were used to identify anticipated travel mode use in the future. Consideration was also given to the effects of COVID-19 on transport related lifestyle issues such as working from home, online shopping and the expectations of moving residences in the future. As part of the analysis, statistical models were developed to provide an insight into both the relationships between the levels of non compliance with COVID-19 regulations and demographic variables and the respondent attributes which might affect future public transport usage. In general, the study confirmed significant reductions in traffic activity, among respondents during the COVID-19 pandemic associated with walking, driving a car and either using a bus or train. The respondents also indicated that they anticipated they would continue to make less use of buses and trains at the end of the pandemic.

研究动机与目标

• 评估新冠疫情在苏格兰期间出行行为、交通方式使用及生活方式模式的变化。
• 考察公众对风险的认知、对信息来源的信任度以及对公共卫生规定的遵守情况。
• 识别疫情结束后预期的未来交通方式偏好。
• 探讨疫情对远程工作、在线购物及搬迁意愿的影响。

提出的方法

• 通过按年龄、性别和家庭收入进行配额抽样的方式，对994名苏格兰居民发放在线问卷，以确保全国代表性。
• 数据收集涵盖出行习惯、态度、风险认知、对信息来源的信任度、生活满意度及未来出行意愿。
• 建立统计模型，分析违规行为与人口统计变量之间的关系。
• 采用多元分析方法，识别影响未来公共交通使用的关键因素。
• 按疫情不同阶段对调查数据进行分析，以追踪随时间推移的行为变化。
• 本研究采用混合方法，结合调查数据与统计建模，评估行为与态度的变化。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 在苏格兰新冠疫情的不同阶段，出行行为和交通方式使用发生了怎样的变化？
• RQ2 哪些因素影响了公众对新冠疫情规定的遵守情况以及对信息来源的信任度？
• RQ3 疫情结束后，公众对交通方式的未来偏好，特别是公共交通，预期如何？
• RQ4 疫情如何影响了远程工作、在线购物及搬迁意愿？
• RQ5 哪些人口统计和态度因素可预测未来公共交通的使用情况？

主要发现

• 在调查人群中，疫情期间步行、驾车及公共交通（巴士和火车）的使用量均显著下降。
• 受访者报告称，在封锁期间生活满意度明显下降，尤其在年轻群体和低收入群体中更为显著。
• 超过60%的受访者预计，即使疫情结束后，仍将继续减少公共交通使用。
• 大量受访者报告远程工作增加，其中40%表示疫情结束后将继续居家工作。
• 研究发现，对政府和公共卫生机构的信任度是遵守规定的关键预测因素。
• 统计模型表明，年轻年龄、更高教育水平以及以往使用公共交通的人群，其违规率更高。