[论文解读] Impact of high renewable penetration scenarios on system reliability: two case studies in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Markus Groissböck, Alexandre Gusmão|arXiv (Cornell University)|Sep 12, 2017

Integrated Energy Systems Optimization参考文献 8被引用 4

一句话总结

本研究通过两个区域案例研究评估了沙特阿拉伯高比例可再生能源的渗透情况，表明光伏（PV）和风能可分别满足超过80%和55%的峰值负荷需求，且不会影响系统可靠性。研究发现，受规模经济和可再生能源成本持续下降的驱动，系统经济性优于对间歇性的担忧，仅当可再生能源发电量超过峰值负荷的30–40%时才会出现弃用现象。

ABSTRACT

Renewable energy sources (RES) are close to grid parity compared with conventional generation. Therefore, it is important to consider proper costs to assess the economics instead of technological aspects only. While some scholars are in the opinion that RES only adds complexity - as RES production is volatile and stochastic - others share the opinion that RES has value in terms of energy savings, as well as capacity savings, and contributes to the reliability of an energy system. Instead of analyzing the losses as a result of adding RES, it should be focused on the overall system economics, as this is more important than if more or less electricity is lost for whatever reason. Economy of Scale (EoS) can have significant impact on project evaluation, and therefore should be considered in medium- and long-term planning exercises. As a result of not limiting RES to minimize losses within the system, the most economic systems show penetration for photovoltaic of above 80 percent, and for Wind of above 55 percent, on peak demand for both locations. This shows that significant energy out of RES is not used during the winter, as the demand is less than 50 percent of summer RES, adding value to the system, as RES saves fuel and increases system reliability by decreasing the required electricity from conventional generation. Dependent on the location, between 30 and 40 percent of peak demand on renewable technologies are required before curtailing takes place. It looks like the concept of Effective Load Carrying Capacity (ELCC) is not that important anymore, as prices for RES came down significantly within the last decades. The RES quality still plays an important role but is getting less important as RES costs are decreasing further. It is expected that also average RES quality site will be more economic in several years.

研究动机与目标

• 评估高比例可再生能源渗透对沙特阿拉伯电力系统可靠性的影响。
• 评估可再生能源能否在不过度弃用的情况下可靠满足峰值负荷需求。
• 分析规模经济和可再生能源技术成本下降在塑造系统经济性方面的作用。
• 通过展示随着可再生能源成本下降，有效负荷承载能力（ELCC）的相关性逐渐减弱，挑战对ELCC的传统依赖。
• 确定在不同区域背景下，弃用成为必要之前的最优可再生能源渗透水平。

提出的方法

• 在沙特阿拉伯王国内两个不同地理位置开展案例研究，以评估可再生能源潜力的区域差异。
• 在不同负荷需求模式下（特别是夏季与冬季负荷对比）建立光伏（PV）和风能的高渗透情景模型。
• 使用系统可靠性指标评估可再生能源发电是否能在不显著弃用的情况下满足峰值负荷需求。
• 评估可再生能源部署的经济影响，强调规模经济和技术成本下降的作用。
• 分析弃用开始发生的节点，识别可再生能源容量超过需求（占峰值负荷的30–40%）的临界阈值。
• 评估在低比例可再生能源成本的现代系统中，有效负荷承载能力（ELCC）的相关性，结论是其重要性已低于过去。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 在沙特阿拉伯，光伏和风能渗透水平达到何种程度后才会出现弃用现象？
• RQ2 在不同季节性负荷模式下，可再生能源渗透如何影响系统可靠性？
• RQ3 规模经济和可再生能源技术成本下降在多大程度上影响高比例可再生能源系统的经济可行性？
• RQ4 在低比例可再生能源成本、高渗透率系统中，传统的有效负荷承载能力（ELCC）指标是否仍具相关性？
• RQ5 从节省燃料和减少对常规发电依赖的角度看，系统在多大程度上受益于可再生能源？

主要发现

• 在两个研究区域，光伏渗透率超过峰值负荷的80%是可行的，且不会引发显著可靠性问题。
• 在高渗透情景下，两个案例研究区域的风能渗透率超过峰值负荷的55%是可行的。
• 仅当可再生能源容量超过峰值负荷的30–40%时才会出现弃用，表明系统对波动性发电具有高度容忍度。
• 冬季由于负荷较低，大量可再生能源电力未被使用，但这一现象通过减少化石燃料消耗而增加了价值。
• 随着可再生能源技术成本大幅下降，有效负荷承载能力（ELCC）的概念正变得越来越不相关。
• 规模经济和可再生能源成本下降对系统规划的影响，大于传统可靠性指标（如ELCC）的影响。