[论文解读] Observed mobility behavior data reveal social distancing inertia

Sepehr Ghader, Jun Zhao+4 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Apr 30, 2020

Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis参考文献 28被引用 35

一句话总结

该论文分析整合的匿名化出行数据、COVID-19病例数据和普查数据，显示社交距离行为具有惯性，在病例出现后有所改善，但约两周后趋于饱和，与政府行动无关。

ABSTRACT

The research team has utilized an integrated dataset, consisting of anonymized location data, COVID-19 case data, and census population information, to study the impact of COVID-19 on human mobility. The study revealed that statistics related to social distancing, namely trip rate, miles traveled per person, and percentage of population staying at home have all showed an unexpected trend, which we named social distancing inertia. The trends showed that as soon as COVID-19 cases were observed, the statistics started improving, regardless of government actions. This suggests that a portion of population who could and were willing to practice social distancing voluntarily and naturally reacted to the emergence of COVID-19 cases. However, after about two weeks, the statistics saturated and stopped improving, despite the continuous rise in COVID-19 cases. The study suggests that there is a natural behavior inertia toward social distancing, which puts a limit on the extent of improvement in the social-distancing-related statistics. The national data showed that the inertia phenomenon is universal, happening in all the U.S. states and for all the studied statistics. The U.S. states showed a synchronized trend, regardless of the timeline of their statewide COVID-19 case spreads or government orders.

研究动机与目标

• 调查COVID-19病例如何影响人类出行和社交距离行为。
• 确定对病例出现的自发反应是持续存在还是随时间趋于饱和。
• 使用综合数据集评估COVID-19对出行反应在州际之间的普适性。

提出的方法

• 将匿名化位置信息、COVID-19病例数据和普查人口信息整合为一个数据集。
• 计算与社交距离相关的统计量：出行率、每人旅行里程、在家比例。
• 从病例出现起，跨所有研究州分析这些统计量的时间趋势。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 COVID-19病例的出现是否引发社交距离统计的改善？
• RQ2 社交距离的改善是否随时间继续，还是即使病例上升也趋于饱和？
• RQ3 观察到的出行反应在美国各州是否具有普遍性且与政府命令无关？

主要发现

• 观察到COVID-19病例后，社交距离统计改善。
• 改善在大约两周后趋于饱和，即使病例继续上升。
• 全美层面的结果在所有州和所有研究统计量中均显示惯性。
• 各州呈现出同步的出行趋势，与病例扩散时间线或命令无关。