[论文解读] Phases of the net-zero energy transition and strategies to achieve it

Joche Markard, Daniel Rosenbloom|arXiv (Cornell University)|Nov 16, 2023

Environmental Impact and Sustainability被引用 8

一句话总结

论文识别净零能源转型的阶段，并概述可指导研究和政策制定的总体策略与政策挑战。

ABSTRACT

The net-zero energy transition is an extraordinary societal challenge. It requires a swift, radical and economy wide transformation. With the aim of informing research and policy, we identify general phases of this transition and the overarching strategies that may be brought to bear in tackling this challenge. Drawing from the literature on sustainability transition studies, we depict the net-zero energy transition as a non-linear, cumulative process that involves multiple, interdependent transitions in different sectors. Future emission targets can only be reached if policymaking will play a strong role in guiding these transitions. To understand the increasing complexity of the policy challenge, we distinguish four overlapping phases of development: emergence of low-carbon innovations, transition of a single sector (electricity), transitions of multiple sectors based on low-carbon electricity, and transitions in difficult-to-decarbonize sectors. We argue that each phase comes with new policy challenges on top of the already existing ones. Finally, we discuss the merits and limitations of five general strategies for decarbonization: efficiency improvement, low-carbon electrification, low-carbon fuels, negative emissions and "untapped demand-side approaches." While electrification has emerged as the dominant strategy, new low-carbon fuels (e.g., based on hydrogen) but also more radical changes (e.g., substitution of carbon-intensive products or lifestyle changes) merit further attention.

研究动机与目标

• 从可持续性转型研究中提炼的净零能源转型的一般阶段
• 强调各行业转型的差异及政策在引导中的作用
• 讨论去碳化的总体策略及其优缺点

提出的方法

• 对可持续性转型研究文献的综合，将净零能源转型建模为非线性、累积过程
• 区分聚焦于创新与行业转型的四个重叠发展阶段
• 分析各阶段出现的政策挑战
• 评估一般去碳化策略及其相对强调点

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 净零能源转型的一般阶段是什么？
• RQ2 转型的每个阶段会出现哪些政策挑战？
• RQ3 主要去碳化策略的优点与局限是什么？
• RQ4 诸如电气化、低碳燃料、需求侧变化等策略如何在各行业相互作用？

主要发现

• 净零转型是一个非线性、累积的过程，涉及相互依赖的行业转型
• 识别出四个重叠阶段：低碳创新的出现、单一行业转型（电力）、具有低碳电力的多行业转型，以及难以去碳化行业的转型
• 每个阶段都会带来超出现有挑战的新政策挑战
• 讨论了五种去碳化的一般策略：效率、低碳电气化、低碳燃料、负排放，以及未被充分挖掘的需求侧方法
• 电气化具有主导地位，但低碳燃料和激进变革值得进一步关注