[论文解读] Prospects for Improving Competition in Mobile Roaming

Ulrich Stumpf|ArXiv.org|Sep 26, 2001

Urban and Freight Transport Logistics被引用 13

一句话总结

本文分析了欧洲移动漫游市场中的结构性竞争障碍，重点研究批发定价问题。文章认为，SIM卡空中编程、双模终端的普及以及GSM 1800网络的扩展将减少后发者的劣势，使新进入者能够通过换取优先漫游地位来降低收费。其主要贡献在于前瞻性地评估了技术与市场发展如何提升竞争水平并降低零售漫游价格。

ABSTRACT

The ability to make international roaming calls is of increasing importance to customers in Europe. This contrasts with various complaints that retail prices of roaming calls are rigid and excessive. The focus if the paper is on wholesale roaming, which is the prime determinant of retail roaming prices. The paper analyses the structural conditions of wholesale roaming markets that have impaired incentives to competition, namely high combined market share of the two leading GSM 900 operators combined with second mover disadvantages for new entrant GSM 1800 operators, and demand externalities. The paper argues that a number of developments are under way that are likely to modify this situation in the future. With the introduction of SIM over-the-air programming, home mobile operators will be able to direct customers to networks with the lowest charges. As dual mode handsets become ubiquitous and as new entrant GSM 1800 operators reach nationwide coverage, second-mover disadvantages will disappear. Given the relatively small roaming volumes that GSM 1800 operators currently provide, they should have an incentive to lower charges in exchange for preferred roaming status. On the demand side of wholesale roaming markets, it will be the larger GSM 900 operators, and in particular those with a pan-European footprint, that will ask for lower charges in exchange for preferred roaming status. This could discriminate against mobile operators in downstream retail markets that do not have a pan-European footprint and that lack the bargaining power. However, arbitrage by roaming brokers, new entry and wider geographical markets on the retail roaming level will work against this.

研究动机与目标

• 分析欧洲批发移动漫游市场中的结构性竞争障碍。
• 识别GSM 900运营商市场集中度高以及GSM 1800运营商作为后发者所面临的劣势如何阻碍竞争性定价。
• 评估需求外部性如何扭曲市场激励。
• 评估新兴技术与市场发展对漫游服务竞争动态的潜在改善作用。
• 探讨泛欧运营商与漫游中介可能对定价与市场准入产生的影响。

提出的方法

• 通过整合主要GSM 900运营商的市场份额数据，分析市场结构以评估集中度效应。
• 评估后发者劣势对新GSM 1800运营商在覆盖范围与定价能力方面的影响。
• 建立模型分析需求外部性，即大型运营商的漫游选择如何影响小型运营商的定价。
• 评估SIM空中编程在使本地运营商将用户路由至低成本网络方面的作用。
• 考察漫游中介的套利行为以及新零售市场进入对市场力量失衡的制衡潜力。
• 基于双模终端普及趋势与GSM 1800运营商全国覆盖扩展的动态，预测未来市场演变。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 主导GSM 900运营商的高市场份额在多大程度上扭曲了批发漫游市场的竞争？
• RQ2 GSM 1800新进入者面临的后发者劣势在哪些方面限制了价格竞争？
• RQ3 需求外部性如何影响大型运营商协商更低批发漫游费率的激励？
• RQ4 SIM空中编程在多大程度上可使终端用户在漫游期间接入低成本网络？
• RQ5 泛欧运营商与漫游中介可能如何改变批发漫游协议中议价能力的平衡？

主要发现

• 两大领先GSM 900运营商的合计市场份额在批发漫游市场中形成了结构性竞争壁垒。
• 随着双模终端的普及与全国覆盖的扩展，新GSM 1800运营商的后发者劣势预计将逐步减弱。
• 当前漫游流量有限的GSM 1800运营商很可能通过提供更低收费以换取优先漫游地位，从而获得市场准入。
• 拥有泛欧网络布局的大型GSM 900运营商将具备更强的议价能力，可能要求更低的批发费率。
• 漫游中介的套利行为以及零售市场进入的增加，预计将抵消市场力量失衡带来的反竞争效应。
• 诸如SIM空中编程等技术发展预计将随时间推移增强消费者选择，并降低零售漫游价格。