[论文解读] Statistical investigation of relationship between spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and environmental factors based on study of four mostly affected places of China and five mostly affected places of Italy

Soumyabrata Bhattacharjee|arXiv (Cornell University)|Mar 25, 2020

COVID-19 epidemiological studies参考文献 7被引用 54

一句话总结

该研究统计分析每日确诊COVID-19病例与环境因素（最大相对湿度、最高温度和最大风速）在中国四座城市与意大利五座城市之间的关系，发现大多数与湿度和风的关系可以忽略不计，与温度的关系从微弱到中等。

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus disease which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It originated in China in the month of December 2019 and quickly started to spread within the country. On 31st December 2019, it was first reported to country office of World Health Organization (WHO) in China. Since then, it has spread to most of the countries around the globe. However, there has been a recent rise in trend in believing that it would go away during summer days, which has not yet been properly investigated. In this paper, relationship of daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 with three environmental factors, viz. maximum relative humidity (RH_max), maximum temperature (T_max) and highest wind speed (WS_max), considering the incubation period, have been investigated statistically, for four of the most affected places of China, viz. Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, Wuhan and five of the most affected places of Italy, viz. Bergamo, Cremona, Lodi, Milano. It has been found that the relationship with maximum relative humidity and highest wind is mostly negligible, whereas relationship with maximum temperature is ranging between negligible to moderate.

研究动机与目标

• 调查COVID-19每日确诊病例是否与环境因素（RH_max、T_max、WS_max）相关。
• 评估潜伏期如何影响这些关系。
• 比较在COVID-19影响最深的中国四座城市和意大利五座城市之间的发现。

提出的方法

• 将每日确诊病例与RH_max、T_max和WS_max相关的统计分析。
• 在分析中考虑潜伏期。
• 中国与意大利城市（Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, Wuhan vs. Bergamo, Cremona, Lodi, Milano）之间的跨区域比较。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 每日确诊COVID-19病例与最大相对湿度之间的关系是什么？
• RQ2 每日确诊COVID-19病例与最大温度之间的关系是什么？
• RQ3 每日确诊COVID-19病例与最高风速之间的关系是什么？
• RQ4 潜伏期如何影响所研究地点的这些环境关系？
• RQ5 所研究的中国城市与意大利城市之间在这些关系上是否存在显著差异？

主要发现

• 最大相对湿度与每日病例之间的关系在大多数情况下可以忽略。
• 最高风速与每日病例之间的关系在大多数情况下可以忽略。
• 最大温度的关系在各地点从微弱到中等不等。
• 在分析中考虑的潜伏期对关系的解释。
• 在摘要中并未将中国与意大利城市集合之间的差异强调为强烈差异。