[论文解读] The climate impact of ICT: A review of estimates, trends and regulations

Charlotte Freitag, Mike Berners-Lee+4 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Feb 3, 2021

Green IT and Sustainability参考文献 67被引用 57

一句话总结

一项评估 ICT 当前及预测的气候影响的综述，发现许多估算存在低估，并主张加强监管和全球碳约束以使 ICT 与巴黎目标保持一致。

ABSTRACT

In this report, we examine the available evidence regarding ICT's current and projected climate impacts. We examine peer-reviewed studies which estimate ICT's current share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to be 1.8-2.8% of global GHG emissions. Our findings indicate that published estimates all underestimate the carbon footprint of ICT, possibly by as much as 25%, by failing to account for all of ICT's supply chains and full lifecycle (i.e. emissions scopes 1, 2 and fully inclusive 3). Adjusting for truncation of supply chain pathways, we estimate that ICT's share of emissions could actually be as high as 2.1-3.9%. There are pronounced differences between available projections of ICT's future emissions. These projections are dependent on underlying assumptions that are sometimes, but not always, made explicit - and we explore these in the report. Whatever assumptions analysts take, they agree that ICT will not reduce its emissions without a major concerted effort involving broad political and industrial action. We provide three reasons to believe ICT emissions are going to increase barring a targeted intervention, and we note that in light of these, it seems risky to assume that ICT will, by default, assist in the attainment of climate targets. Based on our analysis, we find that not all carbon pledges in the ICT sector are ambitious enough to meet climate targets. We explore the underdevelopment of mechanisms for enforcing sector-wide compliance, and contend that without a global carbon constraint, a new regulatory framework is required to keep the ICT sector's carbon footprint in alignment with the Paris Agreement. We further contend that a global carbon constraint should be viewed as a significant opportunity for the ICT sector, as efficiencies within and enabled by ICT would be even greater enablers of productivity and utility than they are today.

研究动机与目标

• 评估分配给 ICT 的全球温室气体排放的当前估计份额（1.8-2.8%）。
• 评估 ICT 生命周期与供应链如何影响排放估算（范围 1-3）。
• 识别导致低估的因素以及更准确核算的空间。
• 讨论未来 ICT 排放预测及政策与监管的影响。
• 主张实施全球碳约束以使 ICT 与气候目标保持一致。

提出的方法

• 回顾同行评议研究，估算 ICT 目前的全球温室气体排放份额。
• 分析由于生命周期边界不完整和供应链截断导致的差异。
• 在各种假设与情景下综合 ICT 排放预测。
• 评估影响 ICT 部门脱碳的监管与政策机制。
• 提出全球碳约束框架及其对 ICT 的潜在好处。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 根据同行评议的估计，ICT 的全球温室气体排放当前份额是多少？
• RQ2 ICT 供应链及完整生命周期考虑如何影响排放估算（范围 1-3）？
• RQ3 为何 ICT 排放预测会不同，哪些假设驱动这些差异？
• RQ4 为确保 ICT 领域与气候目标保持一致，需要哪些监管措施？
• RQ5 全球碳约束是否能促使 ICT 提高效率并实现气候目标？

主要发现

• 同行评议的估计把 ICT 当前的全球温室气体排放份额定为大约 1.8-2.8%。
• ICT 供应链和完整生命周期的核算差距可能使足迹低估多达约 25%。
• 纠正被截断的供应链路径会带来更高的潜在份额，为 2.1-3.9%。
• 在未进行有针对性的干预的情况下，由于潜在增长和使用模式，ICT 排放可能会增加。
• 并非所有 ICT 行业的碳承诺都足够雄心勃勃，若无更强的机制和执法，难以实现气候目标。
• 全球碳约束可能成为 ICT 实现更高生产力和去碳化收益的重要机会。