[论文解读] The Contribution of Tourism in National Economies: Evidence of Greece

Olga‐Ioanna Kalantzi, Dimitrios Tsiotas+1 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Feb 25, 2023

Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research被引用 12

一句话总结

这篇论文分析了旅游业如何影响希腊经济（2000–2012），使用经常账户数据，发现旅游具有韧性但尚未被充分利用以推动增长。

ABSTRACT

Greece constitutes a coastal country with a lot of geomorphologic, climatic, cultural and historic peculiarities favoring the development of many aspects of tourism. Within this framework, this article examines what are the effects of tourism in Greece and how determinative these effects are, by applying a macroscopic analysis on empirical data for the estimation of the contribution of tourism in the Greek Economy. The available data regard records of the Balance of Payments in Greece and of the major components of the Balance of the Invisible Revenues, where a measurable aspect of tourism, the Travel or Tourism Exchange, is included. At the time period of the available data (2000-2012) two events of the recent Greek history are distinguished as the most significant (the Olympic Games in the year 2004 and the economic crisis initiated in the year 2009) and their impact on the diachronic evolution in the tourism is discussed. Under an overall assessment, the analysis illustrated that tourism is a sector of the Greek economy, which is described by a significant resilience, but it seems that it has not yet been submitted to an effective developmental plan exploiting the endogenous tourism dynamics of the country, suggesting currently a promising investment of low risk for the economic growth of country and the exit of the economic crisis

研究动机与目标

• 使用2000–2012年的宏观经济数据评估旅游对希腊经济的影响。
• 考察重大事件（2004年奥运会，2009年危机）如何影响旅游动态和经济结果。
• 评估旅游是否在一个有效的发展战略中得到充分发展，以支持增长。

提出的方法

• 使用 Balance of Payments 和 Balance of Invisible Revenues 的宏观经济数据来识别旅游相关组成部分，如 Travel/Tourism Exchange。
• 应用 diachronic（time-series）分析以观察2000–2012年的演变。
• 解释外部冲击（2004年奥运会，2009年危机）对旅游表现的影响。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 在2000–2012年，旅游对 Greece 的经济有何可衡量的贡献？
• RQ2 2004年奥运会和2009年经济危机如何影响旅游及其宏观经济影响？
• RQ3 希腊的旅游是否与有效的发展战略一致，还是未被充分利用以实现持续增长？
• RQ4 数据对希腊旅游部门的韧性有何启示？
• RQ5 关于将旅游作为增长引擎投资的政策含义有哪些？

主要发现

• 旅游业在希腊经济中显示出显著韧性的一个行业。
• 旅游尚未纳入利用内生旅游动力的有效发展计划。
• 基于观察到的旅游表现，研究表明在低风险的前提下对经济增长和化解危机具有有前景的投资潜力。