[论文解读] The development of battery storage systems in Germany: A market review (status 2023)

Jan Figgener, Christopher Hecht+6 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Mar 13, 2022

Microgrid Control and Optimization被引用 57

一句话总结

这篇论文提供了德国电池储能系统（BSS）截至2022年的市场概览，汇总公共数据库和补贴计划数据，以量化家用、工业、大型储能和电动汽车储能及价格。

ABSTRACT

The market for battery storage systems (BSS) has been growing rapidly for years and will multiply in the future. With this extension of our previous works, we contribute key figures for model parametrization and political decision-making and depict the market development in Germany, one of the leading storage markets worldwide. In empirical analyses, we evaluate and combine all major public databases on national stationary and mobile storage as well as our databases from subsidy programs and extend the insights by literature research and bilateral industry exchange. In comparison to 2021, the market for home storage systems (HSS) grew by 52% in terms of battery energy in 2022 and is by far the largest stationary storage market in Germany. We estimate that about 220,000 HSS (1.9 GWh / 1.2 GW) were installed solely in 2022. The emerging market for industrial storage systems (ISS) grew by 24% in 2022, with a total of 1,200 ISS (0.08 GWh / 0.04 GW) installed. The market for large-scale storage systems (LSS) increased strongly by 910% with 47 LSS (0.47 GWh / 0.43 GW) commissioned. The electric vehicle (EV) market grew with 693,000 new EV (27 GWh / 43 GW (DC) / 4.5 GW (AC)) by 34% in terms of battery energy. System BSS prices increased significantly in 2022 and were estimated at 1,200 EUR/kWh for HSS. LSS prices ranged on average from 310 EUR/kWh to 465 EUR/kWh. In total, we estimate that over 650,000 stationary BSS with a battery energy of 7.0 GWh with an inverter power of 4.3 GW and 1,878,000 EV with a battery energy of 65 GWh and a DC charging power of 91 GW (12 GW AC) were operated in Germany by the end of 2022. The cumulative battery energy of about 72 GWh is therefore nearly twice the 39 GWh of nationally installed pumped hydro storage demonstrating the enormous flexibility potential of battery storage for the energy system.

研究动机与目标

• 量化德国固定式和移动式电池储能系统（BSS）2022年的市场发展。
• 结合公共数据库和补贴计划数据，以支持模型参数化和政策决策。
• 将德国定位为领先的储能市场，并比较不同储能细分市场（家用、工业、大型）和EV的增长。

提出的方法

• 从国家公共数据库聚合固定式和移动储存及补贴项目数据。
• 整合文献研究和双边行业交流以扩展洞见。
• 估算2022年的装机量和价格（例如 HSS、ISS、LSS、EVs）。
• 计算总电池能量、逆变器功率和总装机容量等聚合指标。
• 提供相对于水力蓄能的对比背景，以说明系统灵活性。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 2022 年德国家用储能系统（HSS）、工业储能系统（ISS）和大型储能系统（LSS）的装机量和容量是多少？
• RQ2 2022 年电池能量、逆变器功率和 EV 电池指标如何演变，各分段的系统 BSS 价格水平是多少？
• RQ3 2022 年德国固定式和移动式 BSS 市场在累计能量及灵活性潜力方面，与前几年及其他储能技术（如水电蓄能）相比如何？

主要发现

• 2022 年，HSS 的电池能量增长了 52%，是德国最大的固定储存市场，年内安装约 220,000 个 HSS（1.9 GWh / 1.2 GW）。
• ISS 2022 年增长 24%，总计约 1,200 套（0.08 GWh / 0.04 GW）。
• LSS 2022 年增长 910%，共 47 台（0.47 GWh / 0.43 GW）投入运行。
• EV 市场在 2022 年新增约 693,000 辆车辆（27 GWh / 43 GW DC / 4.5 GW AC），电池能量增长 34%。
• 系统 BSS 价格上涨，HSS 估计为 1,200 EUR/kWh，而 LSS 价格平均在 310 EUR/kWh 和 465 EUR/kWh 之间。
• 截至2022年底，德国运营超过 650,000 台固定式 BSS（7.0 GWh；4.3 GW 逆变器）和 1,878,000 辆 EV（65 GWh；91 GW DC / 12 GW AC），累计电池能量约 72 GWh，几乎是全国装机水电蓄能的 39 GWh 的两倍。