[论文解读] The Impact of COVID-19 and Policy Responses on Australian Income Distribution and Poverty

Jinjing Li, Yogi Vidyattama+3 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Sep 8, 2020

Employment and Welfare Studies参考文献 17被引用 15

一句话总结

本研究利用调查数据与行政数据的半非参数组合方法，分析了2020年2月至6月期间新冠疫情对澳大利亚收入不平等和贫困的影响，以及澳大利亚政府政策应对的效应。研究发现，政府的工资补贴和福利支持使基尼系数降低了近0.03个百分点，贫困率下降了3至4个百分点，从而防止了失业率上升导致的不平等和贫困水平急剧上升。

ABSTRACT

This paper undertakes a near real-time analysis of the income distribution effects of the COVID-19 crisis in Australia to understand the ongoing changes in the income distribution as well as the impact of policy responses. By semi-parametrically combining incomplete observed data from three different sources, namely, the Monthly Longitudinal Labour Force Survey, the Survey of Income and Housing and the administrative payroll data, we estimate the impact of COVID-19 and the associated policy responses on the Australian income distribution between February and June 2020, covering the immediate periods before and after the initial outbreak. Our results suggest that despite the growth in unemployment, the Gini of the equalised disposable income inequality dropped by nearly 0.03 point since February. The reduction is because of the additional wage subsidies and welfare supports offered as part of the policy response, offsetting a potential surge in income inequality. Additionally, the poverty rate, which could have been doubled in the absence of the government response, also reduced by 3 to 4 percentage points. The result shows the effectiveness of temporary policy measures in maintaining both the living standards and the level of income inequality. However, the heavy reliance on the support measures raises the possibility that the changes in the income distribution may be reversed and even substantially worsened off should the measures be withdrawn.

研究动机与目标

• 评估新冠疫情危机在疫情初期对澳大利亚收入分配的实时影响。
• 评估政府政策应对在缓解收入不平等和贫困加剧方面的有效性。
• 利用多源不完整数据估算基尼系数和贫困率的变化。
• 检验临时支持措施是否防止了收入分配和社会保护进展的倒退。

提出的方法

• 采用三种数据源的半非参数组合方法：月度纵向劳动力调查、收入与住房调查，以及行政工资发放数据。
• 运用统计技术对不完整数据进行插补和整合，实现实时收入分配分析。
• 估算家庭层面的等值可支配收入分配，以评估不平等和贫困状况。
• 比较疫情初期爆发前后收入分配趋势，重点关注2020年2月至6月期间。
• 应用政策模拟模型，分离政府干预对不平等和贫困的影响。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 2020年2月至6月期间，新冠疫情在多大程度上加剧了澳大利亚的收入不平等？
• RQ2 政府的工资补贴和福利支持在疫情期间对减少贫困有多大的有效性？
• RQ3 政策应对对等值可支配收入基尼系数的净影响是什么？
• RQ4 若无政府干预，收入分配将如何变化？

主要发现

• 2020年2月至6月期间，等值可支配收入的基尼系数下降了近0.03个百分点，表明收入不平等程度降低。
• 若无政府政策应对，贫困率可能翻倍，但实际却下降了3至4个百分点。
• 政府的工资补贴和福利转移抵消了失业率上升所引发的不平等加剧趋势。
• 不平等和贫困的减少可直接归因于临时政策措施，凸显了其在稳定生活标准方面的有效性。