[论文解读] The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Trade, Growth, and Innovation

Carlos Góes, Eddy Bekkers|arXiv (Cornell University)|Mar 23, 2022

Global trade and economics被引用 29

一句话总结

本文构建一个具有知识扩散的多部门动态一般均衡模型，以评估地缘政治脱钩对贸易、增长和创新的影响，显示出现显著的区域福利损失与扩散驱动效应。

ABSTRACT

Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade, technological innovation, and economic growth. In conventional trade models the welfare costs of such conflicts are modest. We build a multi-sector multi-region general equilibrium model with dynamic sector-specific knowledge diffusion, which magnifies welfare losses of trade conflicts. Idea diffusion is mediated by the input-output structure of production, such that both sector cost shares and import trade shares characterize the source distribution of ideas. Using this framework, we explore the potential impact of a "decoupling of the global economy," a hypothetical scenario under which technology systems would diverge in the global economy. We divide the global economy into two geopolitical blocs -- East and West -- based on foreign policy similarity and model decoupling through an increase in iceberg trade costs (full decoupling) or tariffs (tariff decoupling). Results yield three main insights. First, the projected welfare losses for the global economy of a decoupling scenario can be drastic, as large as 15% in some regions and are largest in the lower income regions as they would benefit less from technology spillovers from richer areas. Second, the described size and pattern of welfare effects are specific to the model with diffusion of ideas. Without diffusion of ideas the size and variation across regions of the welfare losses would be substantially smaller. Third, a multi-sector framework exacerbates diffusion inefficiencies induced by trade costs relative to a single-sector one.

研究动机与目标

• 激励评估持续地缘政治冲突与脱钩的长期全球经济后果。
• 开发一个具有动态知识扩散的多部门、多区域一般均衡模型。
• 将扩散强度对历史 GDP 增长进行标定，并分析关于集团脱钩的政策实验。

提出的方法

• 构建一个具有 Bertrand 竞争和部门特定知识扩散的多部门多区域一般均衡模型。
• 将知识扩散建模为与投入产出链和贸易份额相关的学习过程。
• 使用方程 (1)-(21) 和命题 1 描述价格、贸易份额和扩散动态。
• 将参数标定为历史 GDP 增长，并模拟脱钩情景（冰山成本、关税、集团切换）。
• 分析扩散无效率并比较多部门与单部门结果。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 全球经济完全脱钩成西方与东方集团的福利与增长效应如何？
• RQ2 知识扩散与多部门联系如何改变地缘政治贸易冲突的长期影响？
• RQ3 不同脱钩机制（冰山成本与关税）在塑造各地区福利方面的比较？
• RQ4 行业结构（如电子设备）在调节扩散和福利损失中的作用？
• RQ5 将中等收入地区在集团之间移动如何影响脱钩成本？

主要发现

• 脱钩造成的全球福利损失在某些地区可高达12%。
• 损失在低收入地区最大，因为来自更富裕地区的技术溢出减少。
• 在具有扩散的动态模型中，福利损失更大且分布更广，相较于没有扩散的模型。
• 与单部门框架相比，多部门框架加剧扩散无效率。
• 如果拉丁美洲和加勒比地区切换集团，在脱钩情景下其福利成本显著上升。
• 限于电子设备的脱钩仍带来较小但可观的损失（0.4-1.9%）。