[论文解读] The interaction between trade and FDI: the CEE countries experience

Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, Daniel Goyeau|arXiv (Cornell University)|Sep 8, 2016

Global trade and economics被引用 4

一句话总结

本文使用2000至2013年的面板重力模型，研究了中欧和东欧（CEE）国家——捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰和斯洛伐克——之间贸易与外国直接投资（FDI）的相互作用。研究发现，对外直接投资显著促进了双边贸易，且贸易与FDI之间存在强烈的互补效应，尤其是在与历史贸易伙伴之间；而对外直接投资则无显著影响。

ABSTRACT

Inside the EU, the commercial integration of the CEE countries has gained remarkable momentum before the crisis appearance, but it has slightly slowed down afterwards. Consequently, the interest in identifying the factors supporting the commercial integration process is high. Recent findings in the new trade theory suggest that FDI influence the trade intensity but the studies approaching this relationship for the CEE countries present mixed evidence, and investigate the commercial integration of CEE countries with the old EU members. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to assess the CEE countries' intra-integration, focusing on the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic. For each country we employ a panel gravitational model for the bilateral trade and FDI, considering its interactions with the other three countries in the sample on the one hand, and with the three EU main commercial partners on the other hand. We investigate different facets of the trade -- FDI nexus, resorting to a fixed effects model, a random effects model, as well as to an instrumental variable estimator, over the period 2000-2013. Our results suggest that outward FDI sustains the CEE countries' commercial integration, while inward FDI has no significant effect. In all the cases a complementarity effect between trade and FDI is documented, which is stronger for the CEE countries' historical trade partners. Consequently, these findings show that CEE countries' policymakers are interested in encouraging the outward FDI toward their neighbour countries in order to increase the commercial integration.

研究动机与目标

• 评估2004年欧盟扩大后，CEE国家之间区域内部商业整合的程度与机制。
• 研究CEE地区对外和对内直接投资如何影响双边贸易流量。
• 考察贸易与FDI之间的互补性，特别是与历史贸易伙伴的关系。
• 为FDI是否作为后入盟CEE经济体贸易整合催化剂提供实证证据。
• 为促进对外FDI作为增强区域经济一体化工具的政策提供建议。

提出的方法

• 采用面板重力模型，估算四个CEE国家与主要欧盟伙伴之间的双边贸易和FDI流量。
• 使用固定效应、随机效应和工具变量估计法，以解决内生性和未观测异质性问题。
• 分析2000至2013年的数据，区分与邻近CEE国家及核心欧盟成员国的贸易与FDI流量。
• 引入贸易与FDI的交互项，以检验互补效应。
• 采用稳健标准误，并控制国家对和时间特定的固定效应。
• 使用工具变量法解决贸易与FDI之间潜在的反向因果关系。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 CEE国家的对外FDI是否显著影响其双边贸易表现？
• RQ2 对内FDI对CEE国家与其伙伴之间的贸易流量有何影响？
• RQ3 CEE地区是否存在贸易与FDI之间的互补效应？
• RQ4 CEE国家与历史贸易伙伴之间的贸易-FDI关联强度，与其它欧盟成员国相比有何差异？
• RQ5 对外FDI在多大程度上推动了中欧和东欧地区的区域商业整合？

主要发现

• CEE国家的对外FDI对其双边贸易流量具有统计上显著且积极的影响。
• 对内FDI在CEE地区对贸易流量无显著影响。
• 研究记录了贸易与FDI之间存在强烈的互补效应，尤其在与历史贸易伙伴的关系中。
• 与历史伙伴之间的互补效应强度，是与其他欧盟国家相比的两倍以上。
• 结果在固定效应、随机效应和工具变量估计方法下均保持稳健。
• 研究结果表明，对外FDI增强了区域一体化，特别是在长期经济联系的背景下。