[论文解读] The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

Steven Sanche, Yen Ting Lin+4 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Feb 9, 2020

COVID-19 epidemiological studies参考文献 12被引用 76

一句话总结

The authors estimate a higher basic reproduction number (R0) and faster epidemic growth for 2019-nCoV than initial reports, implying stronger transmission and the need for early, robust control measures.

ABSTRACT

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

研究动机与目标

• Motivate reassessment of early 2019-nCoV transmissibility using new epidemiological data.
• Estimate key parameters such as the incubation period and R0 with integrated data and models.
• Assess implications of higher contagion for the effectiveness of quarantine and contact tracing.

提出的方法

• Collect extensive individual case reports to estimate epidemiology parameters.
• Integrate estimates with high-resolution travel and infection data.
• Use mathematical models to derive the inferred growth rate and R0.
• Compare new R0 estimates to initial estimates (2.2–2.7).
• Assess implications for public health interventions such as quarantine and contact tracing.

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 What is the revised R0 of 2019-nCoV given available case data and travel information?
• RQ2 How quickly did the early epidemic grow (doubling time) under these conditions?
• RQ3 What is the estimated incubation period and how does it affect transmission dynamics?
• RQ4 Are quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals sufficient to stop transmission under the revised parameters?

主要发现

• The estimated number of infected individuals in the early epidemic likely doubled every 2.4 days.
• The R0 value is likely between 4.7 and 6.6.
• Quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be sufficient to stop transmission.
• Early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
• The study integrates case reports with travel and infection data to refine transmissibility estimates.