[论文解读] Watching the Generative AI Hype Bubble Deflate

David Gray Widder, M. D. Hicks|arXiv (Cornell University)|Aug 16, 2024

Ethics and Social Impacts of AI被引用 9

一句话总结

本文分析由行业领袖和媒体炒作的 Generative AI 热潮泡沫正在降温，并讨论这种炒作对公共话语和商业实践的持续有害影响。

ABSTRACT

Only a few short months ago, Generative AI was sold to us as inevitable by the leadership of AI companies, those who partnered with them, and venture capitalists. As certain elements of the media promoted and amplified these claims, public discourse online buzzed with what each new beta release could be made to do with a few simple prompts. As AI became a viral sensation, every business tried to become an AI business. Some businesses added "AI" to their names to juice their stock prices, and companies talking about "AI" on their earnings calls saw similar increases. While the Generative AI hype bubble is now slowly deflating, its harmful effects will last.

研究动机与目标

• 解释 Generative AI 热炒如何通过领导者叙事、媒体放大效应和市场行为而产生。
• 评估热潮泡沫在降温过程中的轨迹及其意义。
• 凸显 AI 技术潜在的长期危害及审慎采用的领域。

提出的方法

• 对围绕 Generative AI 的媒体叙事和行业话语进行定性分析。
• 对炒作期内观察到的市场与公共话语动态进行综合。
• 讨论炒作驱动的 AI 采用对社会与商业的影响。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 哪些因素促成了 Generative AI 热潮泡沫？
• RQ2 热潮泡沫如何随时间降温？
• RQ3 这种热潮对社会与商业实践的持久负面影响是什么？
• RQ4 利益相关者应吸取哪些教训以避免 AI 热潮的重复周期？

主要发现

• The Generative AI hype bubble 是由 leadership claims、media amplification 和 prompt-driven demonstrations 推动的。
• 这个泡沫现在正慢慢降温，但其有害影响仍在持续。
• 与 AI 炒作相关的公共话语和市场行为对组织的信任和战略决策产生了持久的负面后果。