[论文解读] What is a leader of opinion formation in bounded confidence models?

Evguenii Kurmyshev, Héctor A. Juárez|arXiv (Cornell University)|May 20, 2013

Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence参考文献 20被引用 6

一句话总结

本文研究了在由和谐（C）与部分敌意（PA）两类个体构成的异质社会中，领导者在有限自信意见动态模型中的作用。通过数值模拟，研究发现：在C型社会中，高容忍度的领导者具有更强的控制力；而在PA型社会中，专制型（低容忍度）领导者反而表现出更强的控制力并引发更大的极化，且网络连通性进一步增强了领导者的影响。

ABSTRACT

Taking a decision in democratic social groups is based on the opinion of the majority or on the consensus. So, the study of opinion dynamics is of great interest in analyzing social phenomena. Among the different models of opinion dynamics, bounded confidence models have been studied in different contexts and shown interesting dynamics [1-3]. In [E. Kurmyshev, H.A. Juárez, and R.A. González-Silva, Phys. A 390, 16 (2011)] we proposed a new bounded confidence model and studied the self-formation of opinion in heterogeneous societies composed by agents of two psychological types, concord (C-) and partial antagonism (PA-) agents. In this work we study the influence of "leaders" on the clustering of opinions. Mixed C/PA-societies along with the pure C- and PA-society are studied. The influence of the leader's connectivity in the network, his toughness or tolerance and his opinion on the opinion dynamics is studied as a function of the initial opinion uncertainty (tolerance) of the population. Numerical results obtained with leaders at low, high and average tolerance show complex bifurcation patterns of the group opinion; a decrease or even the total lost of control of the leader over the society is observed in different intervals of tolerance of agents in the case of C/PA-societies. We found that in the C-society a leader showing high opinion tolerance has more control over the population. In the PA-society a leader changes the bifurcation pattern of group opinion in a drastic and unexpected way, contrary to the common sense, and generates stronger polarization in the opposite opinion groups; the connectivity of the leader is an important factor that usually improves the adhesion of agents to the leader's opinion. A low tolerance (authoritarian) leader has greater control over a PA-society than that of a high tolerance (democratic) one; the opposite result is obtained in the C-society.

研究动机与目标

• 理解领导者在具有异质个体类型的有限自信模型中对意见聚类的影响。
• 分析领导者容忍度（意见开放性）、连通性以及初始意见不确定性对群体共识或极化的影响。
• 比较在纯C社会、纯PA社会以及混合C/PA社会中领导力的有效性。
• 探索非直观的领导力结果，特别是在敌对社会结构中的表现。
• 识别在不同领导力与群体容忍度条件下意见动态中的分岔模式。

提出的方法

• 采用一种包含两种心理类型个体的有限自信模型：和谐（C）与部分敌意（PA）个体。
• 引入一个具有可调容忍度（意见开放性）、连通性（网络度数）和意见位置的领导者个体。
• 通过基于信心阈值的个体意见更新机制，使用数值积分模拟意见动态随时间的演化。
• 改变群体的初始意见不确定性（容忍度），以观察群体意见模式的转变。
• 分析在不同领导者类型与群体条件下，意见聚类中的分岔结构。
• 采用基于代理的模拟，评估领导者控制力、极化水平及共识形成情况。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 领导者容忍度水平如何影响其在C社会中对意见形成的控制力？
• RQ2 领导者连通性对PA社会中意见对齐的影响是什么？
• RQ3 为何低容忍度（专制型）领导者在PA社会中比高容忍度领导者拥有更强的控制力？
• RQ4 群体中初始意见不确定性如何影响意见集群或极化的出现？
• RQ5 当具有不同特质的领导者与混合C/PA社会互动时，意见动态中的分岔模式是什么？

主要发现

• 在C社会中，高容忍度（民主风格）的领导者比低容忍度领导者对群体具有更大的控制力。
• 在PA社会中，低容忍度（专制型）领导者比高容忍度（民主型）领导者拥有更强的控制力，这与普遍直觉相反。
• PA社会中的领导者引发更强的极化，意见集群会以对立于领导者意见的方式形成。
• 领导者网络连通性的提升显著增强了个体对领导者意见的遵从，尤其在PA社会中更为明显。
• 系统在意见动态中表现出复杂的分岔模式，领导者控制力的丧失区间取决于个体容忍度。
• 在混合C/PA社会中，领导者的影响对心理类型与容忍度水平的平衡极为敏感。