[论文解读] Why are Megaprojects, Including Nuclear Power Plants, Delivered Overbudget and Late? Reasons and Remedies

Giorgio Locatelli|arXiv (Cornell University)|Feb 16, 2018

Nuclear and radioactivity studies被引用 26

一句话总结

本文研究了为何大型项目，尤其是核电站，持续超支和延期，识别出乐观偏差、规划不善以及缺乏标准化是根本原因。文章提出，小型 modular 反应堆（SMRs）可通过双重标准化——技术设计与项目交付链——缓解这些问题，实现可重复、可扩展的部署，从而改善成本和进度表现。

ABSTRACT

In the first section, this report analyses Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) in the context of megaprojects, explaining why they are often delivered over budget and late. In the second section, the report discusses how Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) might address these issues. Megaprojects are extremely risky and often implemented after a sub-optimal phase of project planning leading to underestimations of the costs and overestimation of short-term benefits. When considering adherence to schedule and budget, often megaprojects might be considered a failure, and optimism bias, strategic mis-rapresentation, complexity, poor planning, poor risk allocation, poor scope management are all reasons to explain their over budget and delay. For megaprojects, especially in the nuclear field, a key strategy to achieve good performances appears to be the standardization. This standardization needs to be twofold: (i) technical standardisation, i.e. the construction of very similar design over and over, and (ii) the project delivery chain standardisation, i.e. the same stakeholders involved in the delivery of a project that is replicable multiple times. Under this perspective, given their size and standardisation potential, SMRs, might be a suitable class of NPP for several countries. Yet, if the economy of scale is the only driver considered, SMRs are hardly competitive with large NPPs (or even with gas or coal power plants). However, a fleet of standard SMRs might balance the lack of economy of scale with the economy of multiples, and the delivery of several standardised SMR projects might be the key to achieve good project management performances in the nuclear sector. However, the deployment of SMRs faces a number of challenges from several perspectives, such as the licencing, supply chain and financing ones. These challenges might be enormous, but so are the potential rewards too.

研究动机与目标

• 分析大型项目（尤其是核电站）成本超支和延期的系统性原因。
• 识别不良项目规划、风险管理失误以及战略误导在大型项目失败中的作用。
• 评估小型模块化反应堆（SMRs）是否可通过设计与交付流程的标准化克服这些挑战。
• 评估通过标准化 SMRs 的舰队化部署实现更好项目表现的可行性。
• 考察阻碍 SMR 部署的挑战——许可、供应链、融资——尽管其潜在优势显著。

提出的方法

• 分析来自大型项目（包括核电站）的历史数据，识别成本和进度超支的重复模式。
• 应用‘乐观偏差’和‘战略误导’概念，作为项目规划中低估的非理性与制度性驱动因素。
• 提出双重标准化框架：(i) 反应堆设计的技术标准化，(ii) 涉及可重复参与方的项目交付链标准化。
• 不以单个电站规模评估 SMRs 的经济可行性，而是通过舰队化部署实现‘多重经济效应’，以抵消缺乏规模经济的不足。
• 使用案例研究和大型核电站与 SMR 部署模式的对比分析，评估项目表现潜力。
• 考虑制度与监管障碍，如许可复杂性与融资结构，这些因素阻碍 SMR 的可扩展性。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 大型项目（尤其是核电站）成本超支和进度延迟的主要原因是什么？
• RQ2 乐观偏差与战略误导如何导致大型基础设施项目规划失败？
• RQ3 反应堆设计与项目交付流程的标准化在核能领域多大程度上能改善大型项目成果？
• RQ4 通过舰队化部署，小型模块化反应堆（SMRs）能否在成本与进度表现上优于大型核电站？
• RQ5 尽管 SMRs 具备理论优势，其广泛采用面临哪些关键制度与金融障碍？

主要发现

• 大型项目（包括核电站）频繁出现超支和延期，主因包括乐观偏差、战略误导、风险分配不当以及规划不足。
• 反应堆设计与项目交付链的双重标准化被确认为提升核能项目表现的关键推动因素。
• 尽管 SMRs 单位上无法实现规模经济，但其标准化 SMRs 的舰队化部署可产生‘多重经济效应’，从而提升整体成本与进度的可预测性。
• SMRs 的成功取决于可重复的项目交付模式，包括一致的参与方与流程，而不仅仅是技术标准化。
• 尽管潜力巨大，SMR 部署仍面临许可、供应链发展与融资方面的重大挑战，必须加以解决才能释放其优势。
• 报告结论认为，标准化的、舰队化的 SMR 项目计划是实现可靠、预算内、准时交付的核能项目的可行路径。