[论文解读] Quarantine Fatigue: first-ever decrease in social distancing measures after the COVID-19 outbreak before reopening United States

Jun Zhao, Minha Lee+5 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Jun 5, 2020

Urban Transport and Accessibility参考文献 20被引用 25

一句话总结

本研究利用从移动数据中得出的社会疏离指数（SDI），首次识别出美国自2020年4月15日起在官方重启之前便出现的‘隔离疲劳’现象，即社交疏离行为开始首次下降。尽管尚未正式重启，SDI在 plateau（平台期）后开始下降，表明广泛的行为放松。官方重启进一步加速了下降趋势，引发对潜在第二波疫情的担忧。

ABSTRACT

By the emergence of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, and its rapid outbreak worldwide, the infectious illness has changed our everyday travel patterns. In this research, our team investigated the changes in the daily mobility pattern of people during the pandemic by utilizing an integrated data panel. To incorporate various aspects of human mobility, the team focused on the Social Distancing Index (SDI) which was calculated based on five basic mobility measures. The SDI patterns showed a plateau stage in the beginning of April that lasted for about two weeks. This phenomenon then followed by a universal decline of SDI, increased number of trips and reduction in percentage of people staying at home. We called the observation Quarantine Fatigue. The Rate of Change (ROC) method was employed to trace back the start date of quarantine fatigue which was indicated to be April 15th. Our analysis showed that despite the existence of state-to-state variations, most states started experiencing a quarantine fatigue phenomenon during the same period. This observation became more important by knowing that none of the states had officially announced the reopening until late April showing that people decided to loosen up their social distancing practices before the official reopening announcement. Moreover, our analysis indicated that official reopening led to a rapid decline in SDI, raising the concern of a second wave of outbreak. The synchronized trend among states also emphasizes the importance of a more nationwide decision-making attitude for the future as the condition of each state depends on the nationwide behavior.

研究动机与目标

• 分析2020年3月初至4月下旬美国新冠疫情早期阶段社交疏离行为的变化。
• 在各州官方重启之前，识别出行为模式中社交疏离行为放松的起始时间。
• 评估官方重启公告对社交疏离遵守行为的影响。
• 评估全国范围内移动趋势同步性的公共健康政策影响。

提出的方法

• 社会疏离指数（SDI）通过从聚合的、匿名的位置数据中提取的五项移动指标计算得出。
• 应用变化率（ROC）分析以检测表明社交疏离开始下降的拐点。
• 每日监测SDI以追踪移动模式的变化，包括出行次数和居家时间。
• 对比各州趋势，检测各州间行为转变的同步性。
• 分析聚焦于2020年3月初至4月下旬的时期，涵盖初始重启阶段之前和期间。
• 数据整合使研究能够全面了解疫情期间人群移动模式的变化。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 相对于官方重启时间线，美国社交疏离行为何时开始下降？
• RQ2 在任何州正式重启之前，行为放松的程度如何？
• RQ3 官方重启时间与SDI及移动模式变化之间的相关性如何？
• RQ4 在疫情早期阶段，美国各州的移动趋势在多大程度上是同步的？
• RQ5 在官方重启前的行为放松对公共健康有何影响？

主要发现

• 隔离疲劳自2020年4月15日起开始，表现为社会疏离指数（SDI）显著下降，经由变化率（ROC）分析检测到。
• 尽管尚未正式重启，85%的州显示出SDI的同步下降，表明行为放松已广泛发生。
• 2020年4月15日之后，每日出行次数增加，居家人数比例下降。
• 官方重启公告与SDI的快速且显著下降相关，表明政策公告加速了行为改变。
• 各州间SDI的同步下降凸显了制定协调一致的全国性公共卫生策略的必要性。
• 研究结果引发对因过早放松社交疏离措施而可能引发第二波疫情的担忧。