Kwanho Shin
Korea University · 経済学
研究室紹介
Professor Kwanho Shin's research lab specializes in macroeconomics, with a focus on the interplay between trade integration, demographic change, and income inequality in East Asia and OECD countries. The lab investigates how trade and financial integration influence business cycle synchronization, risk sharing, price co-movements, and long-term growth, particularly in the context of aging populations. A key research direction involves analyzing the structural impacts of population aging on economic performance, including labor market dynamics, capital accumulation, and productivity. The lab also examines income distribution trends, especially polarization and its social implications, using advanced inequality and clustering measures.
Research Overview
Research Output Trend
Figures are computed from collected data and may differ slightly.
Selected Papers
15As trade integration deepens in East Asia, closer links among the business cycles of East Asian countries can be expected. Theoretically, however, increased trade could lead to either closer or looser business cycles across trading partners. This paper seeks to understand how the business cycles of 12 Asian economies have been influenced by increased trade among them. It finds that the increasing trade itself is not necessarily associated with an increased synchronization of their business cycle
In this paper we explore three important areas where deeper trade and financial integration in East Asia can influence: (1) business cycle co‐movements in the region, (2) the extent of risk sharing across countries and (3) price co‐movements across countries. We find evidence that trade integration enhances co‐movements of output but not of consumption across countries. Especially the fact that trade integration does not raise co‐movements of consumption as much as that of output is interpreted
전체 평균으로부터의 산포도만을 강조하는 전통적인 소득불평등 지수에 비해 지역평균값들을 중심으로 집단화 내지 집락화되어 가는(clustered) 현상을 반영하는 양극화 지수는 사회가 지니고 있는 잠재적 갈등의 수위와 더욱 밀접한 관계를 갖는다. 본 연구는 Esteban, Gradin, and Ray(1999)가 개발한 양극화 지수를 이용하여 다음과 같은 분석을 하였다. 첫째, 신동균전병유(2005)를 보다 확장하여, 외환위기 이후 한국경제의 소득분포의 변화양상을 외국과 비교함으로써, 최근 한국의 양극화 지수가 매우 빠르게 진행되고 있다는 사실을 보다 강화하였다. 둘째, 최근의 양극화 진전에 대한 일차적인 원인분석을 시도하였다. 이를 통해 최근의 양극화의 진전은 저학력자 및 고연령층들에게 보다 불리한 방향으로 진전되었음을 알 수 있었다. 나아가 최근 금융위기 이후의 양극화 진전의 이면에는 소득의 편차가 상대적으로 작은 제조업의 비중이 위축되는 과정에서 방출된 가구주들이 편차가 큰 비제조
Abstract In this paper, we investigate six channels through which population aging affects output growth per capita of 35 OECD countries where the old dependency ratio is already quite high. The six channels we consider are changes in: (i) physical capital; (ii) human capital; (iii) average working hours; (iv) labor participation rate; (v) age composition of 15–64 (the share of population aged between 15 and 64 years; and (vi) total factor productivity (TFP). We first confirm findings from previ