[Paper Review] Avoiding the Crowd: Traveller Behaviour in Public Transport in the Age of COVID-19

Sanmay Shelat, Oded Cats+1 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Apr 22, 2021

Economic and Environmental Valuation22 references4 citations

TL;DR

This study uses a stated choice experiment with Dutch train travellers to examine how COVID-19 risk perceptions influence public transport behaviour, revealing two distinct traveller segments: 'COVID Conscious' individuals who strongly avoid crowding and infection risks, and 'Infection Indifferent' travellers with minimal concern. The latent class model identifies key behavioural differences, with the former valuing 8.75 extra minutes of waiting time to reduce one on-board person, informing better demand forecasting and policy design for post-pandemic transit systems.

ABSTRACT

Public transport ridership around the world has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Travellers are likely to adapt their behaviour to avoid the risk of transmission and these changes may even be sustained after the pandemic. To evaluate travellers' behaviour in public transport networks during these times and assess how they will respond to future changes in the pandemic, we conduct a stated choice experiment with train travellers in the Netherlands. We specifically assess behaviour related to three criteria affecting the risk of COVID-19 transmission: (i) crowding, (ii) exposure duration, and (iii) prevalent infection rate. Observed choices are analysed using a latent class choice model which reveals two, nearly equally sized traveller segments: 'COVID Conscious' and 'Infection Indifferent'. The former has a significantly higher valuation of crowding, accepting, on average 8.75 minutes extra waiting time to reduce one person on-board. Moreover, they demonstrate a strong desire to sit without anybody in their neighbouring seat and are quite sensitive to changes in the prevalent infection rate. By contrast, Infection Indifferent travellers' value of crowding (1.04 waiting time minutes/person) is only slightly higher than pre-pandemic estimates and they are relatively unaffected by infection rates. We find that older and female travellers are more likely to be COVD Conscious while those reporting to use the trains more frequently during the pandemic tend to be Infection Indifferent. Further analysis also reveals differences between the two segments in attitudes towards the pandemic and self-reported rule-following behaviour. The behavioural insights from this study will not only contribute to better demand forecasting for service planning but will also inform public transport policy decisions aimed at curbing the shift to private modes.

Motivation & Objective

• To understand how COVID-19 risk perceptions alter public transport behaviour, particularly regarding crowding, exposure duration, and infection rates.
• To identify distinct traveller segments based on their sensitivity to pandemic-related risks in public transport.
• To inform public transport service planning and policy by quantifying behavioural responses to pandemic-related changes.
• To assess the long-term implications of pandemic-induced behavioural shifts on public transport demand and modal choice.

Proposed method

• A stated choice experiment was conducted with train travellers in the Netherlands to elicit preferences under varying scenarios of crowding, exposure duration, and infection rates.
• A latent class choice model was applied to identify unobserved heterogeneity in traveller preferences, distinguishing between two distinct behavioural segments.
• The model estimated the marginal utility of changes in crowding (on-board passengers), exposure duration (waiting and travel time), and prevalent infection rates.
• Parameter estimates were derived to quantify the value of time and risk reduction, with specific focus on willingness to pay for reduced crowding.
• Segmentation was validated by examining sociodemographic and behavioural covariates such as age, gender, and frequency of train use during the pandemic.
• Self-reported rule-following and pandemic attitudes were used to further validate and contextualize the behavioural segments.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 How do travellers trade off crowding, exposure duration, and infection rates when choosing public transport during the pandemic?
• RQ2 What are the key behavioural differences between travellers who are highly sensitive to COVID-19 risks versus those who are not?
• RQ3 How do sociodemographic factors such as age, gender, and frequency of train use correlate with risk perception and travel behaviour?
• RQ4 To what extent do self-reported attitudes and rule-following behaviours align with observed travel choices in the stated choice experiment?
• RQ5 What are the implications of these behavioural segments for public transport demand forecasting and policy interventions?

Key findings

• The 'COVID Conscious' segment values a reduction of one on-board passenger at 8.75 extra minutes of waiting time, indicating strong aversion to crowding.
• The 'Infection Indifferent' segment values crowding at only 1.04 minutes per person, only slightly above pre-pandemic estimates, showing minimal sensitivity to crowding.
• COVID Conscious travellers show a strong preference for sitting without neighbours, indicating a high sensitivity to proximity risk.
• Older and female travellers are significantly more likely to belong to the 'COVID Conscious' segment.
• Frequent train users during the pandemic are more likely to be 'Infection Indifferent', suggesting habituation or reduced risk perception over time.
• The two segments differ significantly in self-reported rule-following and attitudes toward the pandemic, with 'COVID Conscious' individuals more likely to adhere to public health measures.