[Paper Review] Effect of Lockdown on the spread of COVID-19 in Pakistan

Fizza Farooq, Javeria Khan+1 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|May 18, 2020

COVID-19 epidemiological studies6 references18 citations

TL;DR

This study analyzes the impact of lockdown measures on COVID-19 transmission in Pakistan using daily case data from the National Institute of Health. It finds that a strict initial lockdown reduced the daily case growth rate from 13.14% to 6.55%, but a subsequent 'smart lockdown' led to a resurgence, with the growth rate rising to 7.24%, suggesting a need for renewed strict measures to control the epidemic.

ABSTRACT

A novel coronavirus originated from Wuhan, China in late December 2019 has now affected almost all countries worldwide. Pakistan reported its first case in late February. The country went to lockdown after three weeks since the first case, when the total number of cases were over 880. Pakistan imposed a lockdown for more than a month which slowed the spread of COVID 19 effectively, however in late April relaxation in lockdown was allowed by the government in stages to lift the strain on the economy. In this study, the data has been analyzed from daily situation reports by the National Institute of Health Pakistan and the effects of initial strict lockdown and later smart lockdown have been studied. Our analysis showed a 13.14 Percentage increase in cases before lockdown which drops down to 6.55 percent during the lockdown. It proved the effectiveness of lockdown. However, the Percentage Increase in case grows up to 7.24 during a smart lockdown. If it continues to rise in this manner, Pakistan may need to enter again into a strict second lockdown.

Motivation & Objective

• To evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown policies in slowing the spread of COVID-19 in Pakistan.
• To analyze changes in the daily growth rate of cases before, during, and after lockdown implementation.
• To assess the impact of transitioning from strict lockdown to a 'smart lockdown' on epidemic dynamics.
• To provide data-driven insights for public health policy decisions in resource-limited settings like Pakistan.

Proposed method

• Data was collected from daily situation reports issued by the National Institute of Health, Pakistan.
• The daily percentage increase in confirmed cases was calculated for distinct phases: pre-lockdown, strict lockdown, and smart lockdown.
• Time-series analysis was used to compare the rate of case growth across the three phases.
• The study focused on the period from late February 2020 to late April 2020, covering the initial outbreak and policy responses.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 How did the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases change before and after the implementation of a strict lockdown in Pakistan?
• RQ2 To what extent did the transition from strict lockdown to a 'smart lockdown' affect the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2?
• RQ3 Did the relaxation of lockdown measures lead to a measurable increase in the rate of new infections?
• RQ4 What evidence supports the need for a second strict lockdown if the current trend in case growth continues?

Key findings

• The daily percentage increase in COVID-19 cases was 13.14% before the lockdown, indicating rapid transmission.
• During the strict lockdown phase, the daily growth rate dropped significantly to 6.55%, demonstrating the effectiveness of stringent measures.
• After transitioning to a 'smart lockdown', the daily growth rate increased to 7.24%, suggesting a resurgence in transmission.
• If the current trend continues, Pakistan may require a second strict lockdown to control the epidemic.