[论文解读] UK General Election 2017: a Twitter Analysis

Laura Cram, Clare Llewellyn+2 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Jun 7, 2017

Social Media and PoliticsSocial Sciences被引用 21

一句话总结

本研究分析了2017年英国大选期间的Twitter活动，利用社交媒体数据研究政治情绪、热门话题及媒体影响。研究发现，亲工党情绪主导了讨论，脱欧是核心议题，媒体推动的标签显著塑造了话语格局，且社交媒体在传统媒体之前更早检测到公众意见的转变。

ABSTRACT

This work is produced by researchers at the Neuropolitics Research Lab, School of Social and Political Science and the School of Informatics at the University of Edinburgh. In this report we provide an analysis of the social media posts on the British general election 2017 over the month running up to the vote. We find that pro-Labour sentiment dominates the Twitter conversation around GE2017 and that there is also a disproportionate presence of the Scottish National Party (SNP), given the UK-wide nature of a Westminster election. Substantive issues have featured much less prominently and in a less sustained manner in the Twitter debate than pro and anti leader and political party posts. However, the issue of Brexit has provided a consistent backdrop to the GE2017 conversation and has rarely dropped out of the top three most popular hashtags in the last month. Brexit has been the issue of the GE2017 campaign, eclipsing even the NHS. We found the conversation in the GE2017 Twitter debate to be heavily influenced both by external events and by the top-down introduction of hashtags by broadcast media outlets, often associated with specific programmes and the mediatised political debates. Hashtags like these have a significant impact on the shape of the data collected from Twitter and might distort studies with short data-collection windows but are usually short-lived with little long term impact on the Twitter conversation. If the current polling is to be believed Jeremy Corbyn is unlikely to do as badly as was anticipated when the election was first called. Traditional media sources were slow to pick up on this change in public opinion whereas this trend could be seen early on in social media and throughout the month of May.

研究动机与目标

• 研究2017年英国大选期间Twitter上政治话语的动态。
• 评估社交媒体在选举前反映和塑造公众意见中的作用。
• 调查媒体驱动的标签对在线政治话语结构与内容的影响。
• 将社交媒体情绪与传统媒体报道及民调趋势进行比较。
• 评估外部事件和电视辩论对Twitter参与度的影响。

提出的方法

• 在2017年英国大选前一个月内从Twitter收集数据。
• 应用情感分析，根据内容将推文分类为亲工党、亲保守党或其他。
• 追踪标签的频率与传播性，以识别热门话题及媒体影响。
• 分析推文数量与情绪的时间模式，以检测话语转变。
• 将媒体报道与事件时间线与标签使用量激增及情绪变化相关联。
• 将社交媒体趋势与传统媒体叙事及民调数据进行比较，以评估对意见转变的早期检测能力。

实验结果

研究问题

• RQ1 2017年英国大选期间，Twitter上的政治情绪在多大程度上反映了公众意见？
• RQ2 媒体驱动的标签在多大程度上塑造了在线政治话语的结构与内容？
• RQ3 哪些议题主导了Twitter上的讨论，其显著性随时间如何变化？
• RQ4 外部事件与电视辩论在多大程度上影响了Twitter的参与度与情绪？
• RQ5 社交媒体是否在传统媒体或民调数据之前更早检测到公众意见的转变？

主要发现

• 在整个2017年英国大选前的一个月里，亲工党情绪始终主导了Twitter上的讨论。
• 苏格兰民族党（SNP）在Twitter上的存在感远超其在全国选举中的得票比例。
• 实质性政策议题的讨论频率较低，且持续参与度较弱，远不及人身攻击或政党相关内容。
• 脱欧始终位列使用频率最高的三个标签之中，并作为整个大选讨论的主导背景。
• 媒体机构通过引入和推广特定标签显著影响了Twitter话语，这些标签通常与电视辩论和节目内容相关。
• 社交媒体在传统媒体之前更早检测到公众意见向杰里米·科尔宾倾斜的转变，而传统媒体最初低估了他的支持率。