東京大学 · 数学
福島大学の赤木史也教授の研究室は、重たい尾を持つ確率分布を有する時系列データを対象とした統計的推論に注力しています。特に、モーメントが存在しないような非ガウス型のノイズを持つ自己回帰モデルにおける変化点検出や、M推定量・自己正規化法・経験尤度法を用いた漸近的性質の解明が主な研究テーマです。長-range依存性や重尾分布を有する時系列に対してもロバストな推定手法の構築を目指しており、実務的応用に耐える統計的枠組みの構築を進めています。
Figures are computed from collected data and may differ slightly.
In this paper we consider the problem of detecting a change in the parameters of an autoregressive process where the moments of the innovation process do not necessarily exist. An empirical likelihood ratio test for the existence of a change point is proposed and its asymptotic properties are studied. In contrast to other works on change‐point tests using empirical likelihood, we do not assume knowledge of the location of the change point. In particular, we prove that the maximizer of the empiri
Empirical likelihood approach is one of non-parametric statistical methods, which is applied to the hypothesis testing or construction of confidence regions for pivotal unknown quantities. This method has been applied to the case of independent identically distributed random variables and second order stationary processes. In recent years, we observe heavy-tailed data in many fields. To model such data suitably, we consider symmetric scalar and multivariate $\alpha$-stable linear processes gener
This article extends the self‐normalized subsampling method of Bai et al. (2016) to the M‐estimation of linear regression models, where the covariate and the noise are stationary time series which may have long‐range dependence or heavy tails. The method yields an asymptotic confidence region for the unknown coefficients of the linear regression. The determination of these regions does not involve unknown parameters such as the intensity of the dependence or the heaviness of the distributional t
We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with heavy-tails. This enable us to introduce a local approximation-based estimator which estimates consistently time-varying parameters of the model at hand. To develop a robust method, we also suggest a self-weighing scheme which is shown to recover the asymptotic
In this paper we consider the problem of detecting a change in the parameters of an autoregressive process, where the moments of the innovation process do not necessarily exist. An empirical likelihood ratio test for the existence of a change point is proposed and its asymptotic properties are studied. In contrast to other work on change point tests using empirical likelihood, we do not assume knowledge of the location of the change point. In particular, we prove that the maximizer of the empiri
Open papers in the app to read, cite, and organize with AI.