[論文レビュー] Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review

Kerstin Hötte, Melline Somers+1 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Apr 4, 2022

Digital Economy and Work Transformation被引用数 27

ひとこと要約

この論文は1988-2021年の技術変化が雇用に与える影響について127件の研究を系統的に検討し、報酬メカニズムは一般に労働の置換を相殺するものの、低技能の生産労働者は不利な影響を受ける、という結論を得た。

ABSTRACT

Does technological change destroy or create jobs? New technologies may replace human workers, but can simultaneously create jobs if workers are needed to use these technologies or if new economic activities emerge. Furthermore, technology-driven productivity growth may increase disposable income, stimulating a demand-induced expansion of employment. To synthesize the existing knowledge on this question, we systematically review the empirical literature on the past four decades of technological change and its impact on employment, distinguishing between five broad technology categories (ICT, Robots, Innovation, TFP-style, Other). Overall, we find across studies that the labor-displacing effect of technology appears to be more than offset by compensating mechanisms that create or reinstate labor. This holds for most types of technology, suggesting that previous anxieties over widespread technology-driven unemployment lack an empirical base, at least so far. Nevertheless, low-skill, production, and manufacturing workers have been adversely affected by technological change, and effective up- and reskilling strategies should remain at the forefront of policy making along with targeted social support systems.

研究の動機と目的

• Developed economies における技術が雇用へ与える影響について、四十年分の実証的証拠を総合する。
• 五つの技術カテゴリ（ICT、ロボット、イノベーション、生産性向上（TFP-style）、その他）が置換、復職、実質所得効果を通じて労働へ与える影響を区別する。
• 賃労働のネット影響を評価し、スキル向上と社会的支援の政策含意を特定する。
• 研究間での機構と証拠を分類する構造化フレームワークを提供する。

提案手法

• Systematic search following PRISMA 2020 guidelines.
• Web of Science core collection search for studies using technology-related terms and employment outcomes (1988-2021).
• Screening by title/abstract, then full-text with inclusion criteria: empirical study of technology and employment in developed economies post-1980s.
• Coding scheme to categorize technology type, effect (replacement, reinstatement, real income), level of analysis, and methodology.
• Descriptive, regression-based, and simulation studies were included; studies coded as support, depends, weak, or no support for each effect.

実験結果

リサーチクエスチョン

• RQ1 What is the net employment effect of technological change since the 1980s in developed countries?
• RQ2 How do different technology categories (ICT, robots, innovation, TFP-style, other) affect employment via replacement, reinstatement, and real income channels?
• RQ3 How do effects vary by level of analysis (macro, meso, micro, regional) and methodology (descriptive, regression, simulation)?
• RQ4 Are compensating mechanisms generally offsetting labor displacement, and which groups are most affected?

主な発見

• A large majority of studies (81%) address the replacement effect, with 62% addressing reinstatement and 26% addressing real income.
• About 67% of replacement-effect studies show support; 81% of reinstatement studies show support; 70% of real income studies show support.
• For net employment effects, 29% report net positive employment, 18% negative, 18% inconclusive, and 35% indicate the outcome depends on context.
• ICT, robots, innovation, and TFP-style measures show broadly similar patterns, with nuanced differences such as ICT benefiting high-skill and service jobs and robots supporting labor via complementarities.
• Overall, the evidence suggests technology’s labor-displacing effect is offset by compensating mechanisms, though low-skill and production/manufacturing workers face adverse outcomes and upskilling remains crucial.