[Paper Review] FIFA Does it Right: 2026 FIFA World Cup Does not Increase the Number of Non-Competitive Matches

Traian Marius Truţă|arXiv (Cornell University)|Jul 27, 2018

Sports Analytics and Performance4 citations

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the 2026 FIFA World Cup format change from 4-team to 3-team groups and proposes that predefining the match order significantly reduces non-competitive matches—specifically collusion and dead rubber games—by minimizing strategic manipulation. The study uses historical data (1998–2018) and simulation to show that a seeded match order can preserve competitive integrity while maintaining fairness.

ABSTRACT

FIFA World Cup is one of the most watched sporting event in the world and its popularity continue to increase. While currently 32 teams participate in this event, starting with 2026 the number of participants will increase to 48. As a result, FIFA proposed a major format change, the groups of 4 teams will be replaced by groups of 3 teams, with the first two teams to qualify to the second round. In this paper, we discuss the possibility of matches with limited importance (called non-competitive) for final group standing for both 4-team and 3-team groups and we introduce our definitions of collusion and dead rubber games. Next, we discuss scenarios in both 4-team and 3-team group formats that lead to such matches. Finally, we make an analysis of all group stage matches from last six World Cup editions (1998 to 2018), and we predict the most likely number of collusions and dead rubber games for the new format of the World Cup. During our analysis we consider a variation of the proposed 3-group format in which the order of matches for each group is predetermined. Our analysis show that this variation has the potential of reducing significantly the number of both collusion and dead rubber matches thus becoming an interesting option to be considered for adoption by FIFA. In conclusion, we recommend FIFA to implement a predefined order of group matches prior to the drawing. The seeded team should play the first match with the team that is second best (according to the drawing time FIFA Coca-Cola rankings), as well as the second match from the group.

Motivation & Objective

• To investigate whether the 2026 FIFA World Cup’s shift to 3-team groups increases non-competitive matches.
• To define and analyze 'collusion' and 'dead rubber' games in both 4-team and 3-team group formats.
• To evaluate the impact of match order on the number of non-competitive matches.
• To propose a predefined match order strategy that minimizes collusion and dead rubber games.
• To recommend FIFA adopt a seeded, predetermined match sequence to preserve competitive integrity.

Proposed method

• The study analyzes all group stage matches from the 1998 to 2018 FIFA World Cups to establish baseline frequencies of non-competitive matches.
• It introduces formal definitions of 'collusion' (teams agreeing to manipulate results) and 'dead rubber' (matches with no impact on qualification).
• The paper models the 3-team group format under different match order scenarios, including a predefined order based on FIFA Coca-Cola rankings.
• It compares the number of non-competitive matches under standard scheduling versus the proposed seeded match order.
• The analysis uses historical performance data and simulation to predict outcomes under the new 2026 format.
• A sensitivity analysis evaluates the robustness of results under variations in team strength and scheduling order.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 Does the transition from 4-team to 3-team groups in the 2026 FIFA World Cup increase the number of non-competitive matches?
• RQ2 What role does match order play in generating collusion or dead rubber games in 3-team groups?
• RQ3 Can a predefined match order reduce the incidence of non-competitive matches in the 3-team group format?
• RQ4 How do historical data from 1998 to 2018 inform predictions for the 2026 World Cup format?
• RQ5 What is the optimal seeding strategy for match order that minimizes non-competitive outcomes?

Key findings

• The proposed variation with a predefined match order reduces the number of both collusion and dead rubber games significantly compared to standard scheduling.
• In the 3-team group format, a seeded match order—where the top-ranked team plays the second-best team first—minimizes strategic incentives for manipulation.
• Historical data from six World Cups (1998–2018) show that non-competitive matches are rare in 4-team groups but could increase under unstructured 3-team formats.
• The study predicts that without scheduling reforms, the 2026 World Cup could see a measurable rise in non-competitive matches due to the 3-team group structure.
• The analysis confirms that a fixed match order, especially when seeded by FIFA rankings, is a viable and effective method to preserve competitive integrity.