[Paper Review] Germany's nationwide travel experiment in 2022: public transport for 9 Euro per month -- First findings of an empirical study

Allister Loder, Fabienne Cantner+9 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Jun 14, 2023

Transportation and Mobility Innovations5 citations

TL;DR

This study examines Germany's 2022 9-Euro-Ticket, a nationwide public transport subsidy offering unlimited regional travel for €9/month, using a three-wave survey and smartphone-based travel tracking with 2,261 participants. It finds a 5% modal shift in travel distance and 7% in trip frequency from cars to public transport, but concludes that fare reduction alone is insufficient to ensure sustainable mobility without complementary policies.

ABSTRACT

In spring 2022, the German federal government agreed on a set of policy measures that aimed at reducing households' financial burden resulting from a recent price increase, especially in energy and mobility. These included among others, a nationwide public transport ticket for 9~Euro per month for three months in June, July, and August 2022. In transport policy research this is an almost unprecedented behavioral experiment. It allows us to study not only behavioral responses in mode choice and induced demand but also to assess the effectiveness of these instruments. We observe this natural experiment with a three-wave survey and a smartphone-based travel diary with passive tracking on an initial sample of 2,261 participants with a focus on the Munich metropolitan region. This area is chosen as it offers a variety of mode options with a dense and far-reaching public transport network that even provides good access to many leisure destinations. The app has been providing data from 756 participants until the end of September, the three-wave survey by 1,402, and the app and the three waves by 637 participants. In this paper, we report on the study design, the recruitment and study participation as well as the impacts of the policy measures on the self-reported and app-observed travel behavior; we present results on consumer choices for a successor ticket to the 9-Euro-Ticket that started in May 2023. We find a substantial shift in the modal share towards public transport from the car in our sample during the 9-Euro-Ticket period in travel distance (around 5 %) and in trip frequency (around 7 %). The mobility outcomes of the 9-Euro-Ticket however provide evidence that cheap public transport as a policy instrument does not suffice to incentive sustainable travel behavior choices and that other policy instruments are required in addition.

Motivation & Objective

• To analyze the behavioral impact of a nationwide, low-cost public transport ticket on mode choice and travel behavior in Germany.
• To assess whether the 9-Euro-Ticket induced lasting changes in public transport usage and reduced car dependency.
• To evaluate public willingness-to-pay for a successor ticket and the potential for expanded travel pass ownership.
• To investigate the effectiveness of fare-based incentives in promoting sustainable mobility and reducing transport-related emissions.
• To examine the policy implications of a temporary, nationwide fare reduction in the context of long-term decarbonization goals.

Proposed method

• Conducted a three-wave panel survey with 1,402 participants to collect self-reported travel behavior data before, during, and after the 9-Euro-Ticket period.
• Deployed a smartphone-based travel diary with passive waypoint tracking for 756 participants to collect objective, real-time mobility data.
• Combined survey and app data to validate self-reported behavior and analyze modal shifts in travel distance and frequency.
• Used mixed-methods data collection to assess changes in travel behavior, including induced demand and mode choice under near-zero fares.
• Analyzed data from the Munich metropolitan region as a case study due to its dense public transport network and diverse mobility options.
• Evaluated willingness-to-pay for a successor ticket using survey responses collected during and after the 9-Euro-Ticket rollout.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 To what extent did the 9-Euro-Ticket induce a modal shift from car use to public transport in terms of travel distance and trip frequency?
• RQ2 What was the public’s willingness-to-pay for a successor ticket, and how did it vary across regions and user groups?
• RQ3 Did the 9-Euro-Ticket lead to lasting changes in public transport usage or only temporary behavioral responses?
• RQ4 How did the policy affect public perception and trust in public transport, especially after the pandemic?
• RQ5 What role do additional policy instruments play in sustaining the effects of fare reductions on sustainable mobility?

Key findings

• A 5% increase in daily travel distance was shifted from car to public transport during the 9-Euro-Ticket period, indicating a measurable modal shift.
• A 7% increase in trip frequency was observed for public transport, suggesting higher utilization of transit services during the subsidy period.
• The 9-Euro-Ticket led to a significant but temporary increase in public transport usage, with no strong evidence of long-term behavioral change without continued incentives.
• Willingness-to-pay for a successor ticket was low, but ownership could increase by up to 50% in the Munich region if a complementary local travel pass is offered.
• The policy did not reduce congestion system-wide, with only localized overcrowding observed on popular tourist routes.
• The study concludes that fare reduction alone is insufficient to achieve sustainable mobility goals and that complementary policies are necessary to sustain behavioral change.