[Paper Review] Global GIS-based potential analysis and cost assessment of Power-to-X fuels in 2050

Maximilian Pfennig, Diana Böttger+5 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Aug 31, 2022

Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems5 citations

TL;DR

This study conducts a global, GIS-based assessment of Power-to-X (PtX) fuel potential and costs using high-resolution spatial and temporal data, evaluating 14 PtX pathways from onshore wind and ground-mounted solar PV outside the European Economic Area. It identifies 97 countries with significant potential, with the lowest production costs in Chile, Argentina, and Mauritania, reaching 42.3 EUR/MWh for green hydrogen and 84 EUR/MWh for Fischer-Tropsch fuels by 2050 under strict sustainability criteria.

ABSTRACT

Electricity-based fuels from renewable energies are regarded as a key instrument for climate protection. These Power-to-X (PtX) products are to replace fossil fuels in sectors where direct use of electricity from renewable energies is not possible. We investigate the production potential of PtX fuels from onshore wind energy and ground-mounted photovoltaic energy for all countries outside the European Economic Area along 14 PtX production pathways. These include hydrogen, several hydrocarbons and ammonia. The technical and economic potential assessment is based on data with hourly temporal and high spatial resolution. The analysis considers various criteria, including weather conditions, nature conservation concerns and land use. The results show the production quantities and costs of climate-friendly fuel production under strict sustainability criteria and locate them spatially. It is shown that many regions of the world are well suited to produce PtX products. The production quantity outside Europe is up to 120,000 TWh/yr of hydrogen or 87,000 TWh/yr of hydrocarbons in the long term. We identify 97 countries with potentials, of which 38 countries possess relevant potentials of more than 100 TWh/yr. The largest suitable areas are in the United States, Australia and Argentina. The production costs vary a lot across the different regions. The lowest production costs for PtX generation are in Latin America (Chile, Argentina and Venezuela) and Mauritania with a lower limit of 42.3 EUR/MWh to 46.5 EUR/MWh for gaseous hydrogen and 84 EUR/MWh to 89.1 EUR/MWh for Fischer-Tropsch fuels. All best sites are pure wind or combined wind and photovoltaic sites. Moreover, we show import options of these PtX products to Europe considering socioeconomic factors and transport costs. All investigation results are freely accessible via the Global PtX Atlas on https://maps.iee.fraunhofer.de/ptx-atlas/.

Motivation & Objective

• To assess the global technical and economic potential of Power-to-X (PtX) fuels from renewable energy sources outside the European Economic Area.
• To evaluate 14 different PtX pathways, including green hydrogen, ammonia, and Fischer-Tropsch fuels, under strict sustainability criteria.
• To identify spatially explicit regions with high production potential and low production costs using high-resolution geospatial data.
• To analyze import potential of PtX fuels to Europe, considering transport costs and socioeconomic factors.
• To provide open-access data through the Global PtX Atlas for policy and research use.

Proposed method

• The study uses a GIS-based modeling framework with hourly temporal and high spatial resolution data for onshore wind and ground-mounted photovoltaic energy availability.
• It integrates environmental and land-use constraints, including nature conservation areas and land-use limitations, to define feasible production zones.
• The analysis applies a techno-economic model to estimate production costs per MWh for each PtX pathway, considering capital, operation, and renewable electricity costs.
• The model evaluates 14 different PtX pathways, including green hydrogen, ammonia, and synthetic hydrocarbons, using established chemical conversion processes.
• Production potential is calculated as the maximum annual output achievable under technical and sustainability constraints.
• Results are spatially mapped and made publicly available via the Global PtX Atlas for global accessibility and policy support.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 Which regions outside the European Economic Area have the highest technical potential for producing Power-to-X fuels by 2050?
• RQ2 What are the minimum production costs for different PtX pathways under strict sustainability criteria?
• RQ3 How do wind and solar resource availability, land use, and environmental constraints affect global PtX potential distribution?
• RQ4 Which countries can serve as major exporters of PtX fuels to Europe, and what are the associated transport and socioeconomic costs?
• RQ5 Where are the most cost-competitive sites for large-scale green hydrogen and synthetic fuel production globally?

Key findings

• The global production potential for green hydrogen outside Europe reaches up to 120,000 TWh/yr, with hydrocarbon potential at 87,000 TWh/yr by 2050.
• A total of 97 countries possess significant PtX potential, with 38 countries exceeding 100 TWh/yr of potential production.
• The United States, Australia, and Argentina host the largest suitable land areas for PtX production.
• The lowest production costs are found in Latin America (Chile, Argentina, Venezuela) and Mauritania, with green hydrogen costing 42.3–46.5 EUR/MWh and Fischer-Tropsch fuels at 84–89.1 EUR/MWh.
• All top-performing sites are either pure wind or combined wind and photovoltaic sites, highlighting the importance of hybrid renewable systems.
• The study identifies viable import pathways for PtX fuels to Europe, with transport and socioeconomic factors influencing long-term export feasibility.