[Paper Review] How much of the Solar System should we leave as Wilderness?

Martin Elvis, Tony Milligan|arXiv (Cornell University)|May 24, 2019

Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life23 references45 citations

TL;DR

The paper argues for a policy to reserve 7/8 of the Solar System as wilderness, using a 1/8 principle to cap development and provide exponential-growth leeway.

ABSTRACT

"How much of the Solar System should we reserve as wilderness, off-limits to human development?" We argue that, as a matter of policy, development should be limited to one eighth, with the remainder set aside. We argue that adopting a "1/8 principle" is far less restrictive, overall, than it might seem. One eighth of the iron in the asteroid belt is more than a million times greater than all of the Earth's estimated iron reserves and may suffice for centuries. A limit of some sort is needed because of the problems associated with exponential growth. Humans are poor at estimating the pace of such growth, so the limitations of a resource are hard to recognize before the final three doubling times which take utilization successively from 1/8 to 1/4 to 1/2, and then to the point of exhaustion. Population growth and climate change are instances of unchecked exponential growth. Each places strains upon ouru available resources. Each is a problem we would like to control but attempts to do so at this comparatively late stage have not been encouraging. Our limited ability to see ahead suggests that we should set ourselves a 'tripwire' that gives us at least 3 doubling times as leeway, i.e. when 1/8 of Solar System resources are close to being exploited. At a 3.5 percent growth rate for the space economy, comparable to that of the iron use from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution until now, the 1/8 point would be reached after 400 years. At that point the 20 year doubling time of a 3.5 percent growth rate means that only 60 years would remain to transition the economic system to new "steady state" conditions. The rationale for adopting the 1/8 principle now is that it may be far easier to implement in principle restrictions at an early stage, rather than later, when vested and competing interests have come into existence.

Motivation & Objective

• Motivate a policy framework for limiting space development to 1/8 of Solar System resources.
• Argue that early restriction is easier to implement than restricting vested interests later.
• Quantify resource availability and timeframes under exponential growth assumptions.

Proposed method

• Present a policy argument and rationale for a 1/8 wilderness rule.
• Use exponential-growth reasoning to relate resource depletion to timeframes.
• Estimate growth-rate scenarios (e.g., 3.5% space economy growth) and corresponding doubling times.
• Compute projected timelines: 1/8 exploitation at ~400 years, with 60 years remaining to transition to steady state.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 What is the justification for reserving 1/8 of Solar System resources as wilderness?
• RQ2 How does exponential growth in space activity influence the timing of resource exploitation and policy levers?
• RQ3 What are the projected time scales to reach a near-exhaustion point under specified growth rates?

Key findings

• A 1/8 rule implies an initial reserve of 12.5% of Solar System resources.
• At a 3.5% annual growth rate for the space economy, the 1/8 point is reached after about 400 years.
• A 20-year doubling time at that growth rate leaves about 60 years to transition to a new steady state.
• The 1/8 principle provides leeway of about three doubling times before significant resource exploitation.