[Paper Review] On the social and cognitive dimensions of wicked environmental problems characterized by conceptual and solution uncertainty

Felber Arroyave, Oscar Yandy Romero‐Goyeneche+4 more|arXiv (Cornell University)|Oct 4, 2021

Complex Systems and Decision MakingDecision Sciences100 references19 citations

TL;DR

This paper develops a quantitative framework to assess the wickedness of environmental problems—deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade—by analyzing the dynamics of their knowledge trajectories through social and cognitive dimensions. It finds that instability in knowledge trajectory dynamics, particularly in wildlife trade, signals high conceptual and solution uncertainty, indicating persistent wickedness.

ABSTRACT

We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked problems that emerge at the intersections of "natural", social, and technological complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of interdependent global systems and the systemic risk they pose; such problems escape solutions because they are often ill-defined, and thus misidentified and under-appreciated by communities of problem-solvers. While there are well-documented benefits to tackling boundary-crossing problems from various viewpoints, the integration of diverse approaches can nevertheless contribute confusion around the collective understanding of the core concepts and feasible solutions. We explore this paradox by analyzing the development of both scholarly and topical communities within three wicked problems: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade. We posit that saturation in the dynamics of social and cognitive diversity growth is an indicator of reduced uncertainty in the evolution of the comprehensive knowledge trajectory emerging around each wicked problem. Informed by comprehensive bibliometric data capturing both social and cognitive dimensions of each problem domain, we thereby develop a framework that assesses the stability of knowledge trajectory dynamics as an indicator of wickedness associated with conceptual and solution uncertainty. As such, our results identify wildlife trade as a wicked problem that may be difficult to address given recent instability in its knowledge trajectory.

Motivation & Objective

• To understand how social and cognitive diversity in scientific communities shape knowledge trajectories around wicked environmental problems.
• To investigate why integrating diverse perspectives in boundary-crossing problems can paradoxically increase confusion about core concepts and solutions.
• To assess whether saturation in social and cognitive diversity growth indicates reduced uncertainty and increased stability in knowledge trajectories.
• To evaluate the wickedness of three major environmental problems—deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade—through empirical analysis of knowledge dynamics.
• To develop a data-driven framework that uses bibliometric indicators to measure the stability of knowledge trajectory dynamics as a proxy for conceptual and solution uncertainty.

Proposed method

• Constructs knowledge trajectories by analyzing bibliometric data across three environmental problems: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade.
• Separates knowledge trajectory dynamics into two dimensions: social (collaboration networks, disciplinary diversity, geographic coordination) and cognitive (topic diversity, thematic evolution, conceptual framing).
• Uses bibliometric coupling and co-occurrence analysis to map topic networks and track the evolution of scientific topics over time.
• Applies network science and multiplex network modeling to represent and compare social and cognitive dimensions of knowledge production.
• Measures diversity growth in both dimensions using entropy-based metrics to assess the rate and saturation of knowledge expansion.
• Defines 'stability' in knowledge trajectory dynamics as the point where diversity growth saturates, indicating reduced uncertainty and potential convergence on core concepts and solutions.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 How do the social and cognitive dimensions of knowledge production evolve over time in response to wicked environmental problems?
• RQ2 To what extent does the integration of diverse disciplinary and collaborative perspectives contribute to confusion rather than clarity in defining core problems and solutions?
• RQ3 Can saturation in the growth of social and cognitive diversity serve as an indicator of reduced uncertainty and increased stability in knowledge trajectories?
• RQ4 How does the stability of knowledge trajectory dynamics differ across three major environmental problems: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade?
• RQ5 What role does conceptual and solution uncertainty play in the persistence of wickedness in environmental problems?

Key findings

• Wildlife trade exhibits significant instability in its knowledge trajectory dynamics, with no sign of saturation in social and cognitive diversity growth, indicating high and persistent conceptual and solution uncertainty.
• Deforestation and invasive species show signs of trajectory stabilization, with diversity growth in both social and cognitive dimensions approaching saturation, suggesting reduced uncertainty and greater consensus.
• The study identifies that instability in knowledge trajectory dynamics—particularly in the cognitive dimension—correlates strongly with the degree of wickedness in environmental problems.
• The framework successfully differentiates between problems based on the stability of their knowledge trajectories, with wildlife trade emerging as the most wicked due to ongoing conceptual and solution ambiguity.
• Cognitive diversity growth in wildlife trade remains high and unsaturated, reflecting a lack of consensus on core concepts and feasible interventions.
• The social dimension of knowledge production in wildlife trade shows moderate diversity growth, but its lack of convergence with the cognitive dimension exacerbates systemic uncertainty.