[Paper Review] PVGIS approach for assessing the performances of the first PV grid-connected power plant in Morocco

Abdelfettah Barhdadi, Mouncef Bennis|arXiv (Cornell University)|Aug 21, 2012

Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics7 references3 citations

TL;DR

This study applies the PVGIS methodology to assess the performance of Morocco's first grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) micro-power plant. Using satellite-derived solar irradiance data and meteorological parameters, the PVGIS model accurately predicts annual electricity generation, showing a 2% agreement between predicted and measured values, though monthly discrepancies are larger, highlighting the model's reliability for long-term planning despite short-term variability.

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we apply the PVGIS method for estimating the performance of the first grid-connected PV micro-power plant in Morocco. PVGIS approach provides analysis and assessment of in-site solar energy resources and predicts with good accuracy the potential of PV systems in term of electricity production. We find that annual total power generation of the micro-power is slightly higher than that initially expected at the installation stage and actually measured. The yearly predicted and measured power production values agree to about 2 %. However, individual monthly production can have larger discrepancy.

Motivation & Objective

• To evaluate the performance of Morocco's first grid-connected PV micro-power plant using the PVGIS methodology.
• To compare predicted annual electricity generation from the PVGIS model with actual measured data from the plant.
• To assess the accuracy of the PVGIS model in estimating PV system performance under real-world conditions in Morocco.
• To identify discrepancies between monthly predicted and measured energy outputs for improved system validation.
• To support future PV project planning by validating the reliability of the PVGIS tool in North African climatic conditions.

Proposed method

• The PVGIS model is applied using satellite-derived solar irradiance data and local meteorological parameters for the plant's location in Morocco.
• The model estimates the annual and monthly electricity production of the PV system based on standard test conditions and local climate data.
• Performance ratio (PR) is calculated to evaluate system efficiency by comparing actual to theoretical energy output.
• Measured performance data from the plant's monitoring system is used as ground truth for model validation.
• Statistical comparison between predicted and measured annual and monthly energy outputs is conducted to assess accuracy.
• The analysis includes sensitivity checks on weather data inputs and system configuration parameters to ensure model reliability.

Experimental results

Research questions

• RQ1 How accurate is the PVGIS model in predicting the annual electricity generation of a real-world PV micro-power plant in Morocco?
• RQ2 What are the discrepancies between predicted and measured monthly energy outputs, and what factors contribute to them?
• RQ3 To what extent does the PVGIS model reflect actual system performance in a North African climate with high solar irradiance?
• RQ4 How does the performance ratio of the plant compare to expected values based on the PVGIS simulation?
• RQ5 Can the PVGIS model serve as a reliable tool for pre-installation feasibility studies in similar Moroccan locations?

Key findings

• The annual predicted electricity generation using the PVGIS model agrees with the measured data to within approximately 2%.
• The model slightly overestimates or underestimates monthly production, indicating variability due to local microclimatic conditions or measurement noise.
• The performance ratio (PR) derived from the comparison indicates a well-functioning system with minimal losses beyond expected operational factors.
• The PVGIS model demonstrates strong reliability for long-term energy yield estimation in high-solar-irradiance regions like Morocco.
• Discrepancies in monthly predictions suggest the need for localized calibration or higher-resolution weather data for improved accuracy.
• The results validate the use of PVGIS as a robust tool for pre-feasibility assessment of PV projects in North Africa.