이창형 교수

In this paper we present a moment closure method for stochastically modeled chemical or biochemical reaction networks. We derive a system of differential equations which describes the dynamics of means and all central moments from a chemical master equation. Truncating the system for the central moments at a certain moment term and using Taylor approximation, we obtain explicit representations of means and covariances and even higher central moments in recursive forms. This enables us to deal wi

Dengue fever is a major international public health concern, with more than 55% of the world population at risk of infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of domestic outbreaks of dengue in Korea. In this study, we develop a two-strain dengue model associated with climate-dependent parameters based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We assess the potential risks of deng

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination has recently started worldwide. As the vaccine supply will be limited for a considerable period of time in many countries, it is important to devise the effective vaccination strategies that reduce the number of deaths and incidence of infection. One of the characteristics of COVID-19 is that the symptom, severity, and mortality of the disease differ by age. Thus, when the vaccination supply is limited, age-dependent vaccination priority strategy s

Emerging and re-emerging dengue fever has posed serious problems to public health officials in many tropical and subtropical countries. Continuous traveling in seasonally varying areas makes it more difficult to control the spread of dengue fever. In this work, we consider a two-patch dengue model that can capture the movement of host individuals between and within patches using a residence-time matrix. A previous two-patch dengue model without seasonality is extended by adding host demographics

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred all over the world between 2019 and 2020. The first case of COVID-19 was reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. Since then, there have been more than 21 million incidences and 761 thousand casualties worldwide as of 16 August 2020. One of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 is that its symptoms and fatality rates vary with the ages of the infected individuals. This study aims at assessing the impact of social

At the outbreak of the animal epidemic disease, farms that recover quickly from partially infected state can delay or even suppress the wide spreading of the infection over farm networks. In this work, we focus on how the spatial transmission of the infection is affected by both factors, the topology of networks and the internal resilience mechanism of nodes. We first develop an individual farm model to examine the influence of initial number of infected individuals and vaccination rate on the t

Prior to vaccination or drug treatment, non-pharmaceutical interventions were almost the only way to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. After vaccines were developed, effective vaccination strategies became important. The prolonged COVID-19 pandemic has caused enormous economic losses worldwide. As such, it is necessary to estimate the economic effects of control policies, including non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination strategies. We estimated the costs associa

The moment closure method is an approximation method for describing the stochastic dynamics of chemical reaction networks. In this paper we develop a moment closure method for stochastically modeled chemical reaction networks with general reaction rate laws including mass action, rational and fractional rate laws. Based on the Taylor formula of the reaction rate functions and truncation at a certain order of moment, we find a closed system of equations for the moments. We show the accuracy and e

Dengue fever has been a threat to public health not only in tropical regions but non-tropical regions due to recent climate change. Motivated by a recent dengue outbreak in Japan, we develop a two-patch model for dengue transmission associated with temperature-dependent parameters. The two patches represent a park area where mosquitoes prevail and a residential area where people live. Based on climate change scenarios, we investigate the dengue transmission dynamics between the patches. We emplo