박철범 교수

It is shown that the reaction of U.S. real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account for 22% of the long‐run variation in U.S. real stock returns. The responses of industry‐specific U.S. stock returns to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market are consistent with accounts of the transmission

Using monthly data for earnings forecasts by market analysts, this paper shows that the dispersion in forecasts has particularly strong predictive power for future aggregate stock returns at intermediate horizons. The results are robust (1) regardless of whether Newey-West or Hodrick corrected t-statistics are used, (2) when other forecasting or macroeconomic variables are included, (3) when different scaling variables are used for the dispersion measure, and (4) after correcting for finite samp

Abstract This paper examines whether variations in demographic structure have influenced stock prices. The study employs a nonparametric approach based on the Fourier Flexible Form representation, which relates variations in the entire age distribution to the normalized stock price under a flexible functional form. The main findings of this paper are that there is a significant impact from prime working‐age consumers on the stock price, and that this impact is robust for all G5 countries (France

1. IntroductionSince Shiller (1982) and Mehra and Prescott (1985) questioned why the gap between the rates of returns from stocks and bonds is so large, the equity premium puzzle has attracted the attention of many economists. The numerous explanations for the puzzle that have been put forth can be categorized into three approaches. The first approach is to explain the puzzle under full rationality by introducing more complex utility functions. Epstein and Zin (1989) and Weil (1989) use a utilit

This paper examines the relationship between the demographic structure and asset prices in Korea based on the standard life-cycle model. To this end, this paper employs a non-parametric model which has an advantage of no functional form for the relationship a priori. We find that the estimated relation between the real interest rate and population density function is consistent with the implication from lifecycle models, whereas the relation between the normalized stock price and population dens

We have found a significant sentiment effect from national soccer match outcomes on the Korean stock market, consistent with studies on other countries. Further investigation reveals, however, that such sentiment effect is extremely short-lived and the magnitude of ensuing expected returns based on the sentiment effect is about the same as the transaction costs. Therefore, we conclude that although a significant soccer-sentiment effect from losses exists, it seems almost impossible to devise rel

This paper derives a negative relationship between the dispersion of forecasts among investors and future stock returns based on Harrison and Kreps (1978). Using monthly data for earnings forecasts by market analysts, this paper presents empirically that the dispersion in forecasts has particularly strong predictive power for future stock returns at intermediate horizons (between 25 months and 44 months). The direction of predictive power from the dispersion for future stock returns is consisten

Abstract In this study, we build a structural vector autoregressive model of the housing market with supply and demand shocks to determine the main causes of house price movements in South Korea. We include housing permits, basic housing demand, and the growth rates of real housing prices in the model. Changes in house prices are decomposed into three structural components: housing supply shocks, shocks to basic housing demand, and shocks to housing market‐specific demand. We find that the main