정일환 교수

Fiscal stress has been a source of significant concern for local governments and has led to the introduction of a variety of approaches for dealing with such a situation. One emerging practise is to adopt early-warning systems which identify fiscal stress, assign a fiscal stress label, and assist with local governments’ financial management. Although there is a growing body of research focusing on fiscal stress indicators, there is a lack of studies examining whether localities given a fiscal st

This article advances the research investigating the process of sector choice (attraction-selection) and changes in work values (socialization) over time using panel data. We find little evidence that work values predict actual employment in public schools, but there are differences in changes of work values after entering into public organizations, compared with private organizations. Overall, the findings reveal that after employment, individuals became more likely to have stronger preferences

Based on Hirschman’s exit and voice model, this article examines the impact of voice mechanisms on turnover using the case of teacher unions in New York State. In addition, we intend to identify heterogeneous effects of voice mechanisms on turnover depending on observable teacher characteristics. Our findings reveal that school districts with stronger grievance procedures are associated with low turnover at the individual level. These results shed light on public sector union literature as well

This article examines the relationship between institutional differences embedded in local governance structures and government performance in the specific context of property assessment. In order to provide deeper insight into why certain governance structures perform better than others, we focus on the impact of nested levels of institutions—constitutional-level and substantive-level rules of governance—beyond the conventional perspective of the form of government. Based on panel data of citie

The recent rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to transform how governments work by enhancing the quality of decision-making. Despite rising expectations and the growing use of AI by governments, scholarly research on AI applications in public administration has lagged. In this study, we fill gaps in the current literature on the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms with a focus on revenue forecasting by local governments. Specifically, we explore how differe

Investment in long-term capital projects plays an increasingly important role in improving the quality of many public services, as well as promoting economic development. Using data on capital spending and capital budget structures in county governments in Georgia, USA, this paper explains how a separate capital budget protects infrastructure spending in times of fiscal distress. The author found little evidence that county governments with a separate capital budget spent more than those without

This study aims to advance our knowledge about the role of accrual accounting regimes in financial decision-making process at Higher Education Institutions. The advantages of accrual accounting in the public sector are well documented from the theoretical perspective. However, empirical findings are relatively rare and primarily rely on either normative arguments or storytelling narratives drawn from case studies. Our paper intends to fill this void by combining archival and survey data from hig

Adoption of a separate capital budget in local governments receives little attention in the literature. It is important to look at various capital budgeting practices in local governments since a separate capital budget as different budget format and structure affects budgetary decisions, thus leading to different levels of investment in public infrastructure. This paper examines factors that facilitate or impede adoption of a separate capital budget by using time series data. Results show that

We examine the use of a public access large language model (LLM) to make local government revenue forecasts. ChatGPT is an LLM that is not specifically designed to perform quantitative analysis. However, it is capable of completing a wide range of tasks. The goals of this article are to determine the accuracy that can be obtained and to examine its potential bias. This study is based on a government revenue dataset from the Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA). The benefits of determin

The disparities in achievement among income and racial-ethnic groups of students have long been a major concern of educational policies. Among several identified factors that help explain the student performance gap, this paper focuses on inequity in funding for education among school districts, which resulted from heavy reliance of school districts’ revenue on local wealth. In 2004, the State of Maryland witnessed a significant change in financing methods for educational services by providing m

A major feature of the school finance landscape over the last two decades has been the reform of state school finance systems. Using the case of Maryland's Bridge to Excellence in Public Schools Act, this paper extends the current literature by developing a conceptual framework for residential bidding and sorting and using it to estimate housing market responses to the Maryland state aid reform. With repeat-sales data and many control variables, we find that an increase of $1,000 in current stat

고령화로 인한 사회복지비의 증가, 복지수요의 확대 등으로 인한 지방행정의 수요가 커지고, 지방재정의 경직성이 커짐에 따라 지방정부 재정건전성의 문제는 주요한 정책이슈로 대두되어 왔다. 본 연구는 지방재정의 건전성을 확보하기 위해 2012년도에 시행된 지방재정 위기 사전경보 시스템의 정책효과를 추정하고자 한다. 구체적으로 지방재정 사전경보 시스템이 시행된 이후에 재정위기 주의 진단을 받은 지방정부들과 정상 판정을 받은 지방정부들을 재정진단 분석 시행이전과 비교할 때, 재정운영행태에 차이가 나타나는지 분석하였다. 이중차분 모형을 이용하여 단기적인 측면에서 재정위기 주의 진단을 받은 지방정부들은 그렇지 않은 지방정부들과 비교할 때, 실질채무비율은 감소하고, 세외수입체납액 관리비율은 증가하는 행태를 발견하였다. 세출과 세입 운영과정을 살펴보면, 지방세 혹은 세외수입의 증가는 발견하지 못하였지만, 자본 지출 혹은 시설비 및 부대비가 유의미하게 감소한 것을 발견하였다. 또한, synthetic

본 연구는 자치구 간의 수평적 불균형을 완화하기 위해 2008년 시행된 서울시 재산세 공동과세 제도를 정책 사례로 재산세증대 자치구와 재산세감소 자치구의 재정수입 운영행태에 변화가 나타나는지를 분석하였다. 2003년부터 2014년까지의 패널데이터를 활용한 분석결과, 재산세감소 자치구는 줄어드는 세입에 반응하여, 재산세증대 자치구보다 정책 시행이전보다 더 많은 세외수입을 창출함을 발견하였다. 이로 인해 두 집단 간의 세외수입 차이 격차가 정책시행 전보다 더 커진 것을 발견하였다. 이 결과는 정부 간 재정관계의 정책 평가는 이해관계자들의 피드백 루프를 고려한 설계가 필요함을 시사한다.