김인욱 교수

Petro-alignment, a quid pro quo arrangement whereby great powers offer security in exchange for oil states’ friendly oil policies, is a widely used and yet undertheorized energy security strategy. One consequential aspect of this exchange is that great powers choose different levels of security commitment to keep oil producers friendly. With what criteria do great powers rank oil states? How do we conceptualize different types of petro-alignments? What exactly do great powers and oil producers e

Abstract Is shale oil “revolutionizing” the global oil market and the geopolitics of oil? If so, how? While two aspects of the shale boom—a new source of supply and a cause for the price collapse in 2014–2015—dominate the conventional wisdom, I argue that the most revolutionary change is the least understood aspect of shale oil—shale oil producers’ rise as new swing suppliers due to its unique extraction technique and cost structure. Shale oil producers also differ from traditional swing produce

What causes petro-aggression? Conventional wisdom maintains that the regime type of petrostates has significant effects on the likelihood that petrostates will launch revisionist militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). While domestic politics is an important factor that might explain the motivation and behavioral patterns of a petrostate, it says little about the international environment in which a petrostate decides to initiate conflicts. One significant factor that presents opportunities and

Since China became a net oil importer in 1993, oil refineries have played integral roles in China's quest for oil security. And yet, the capacity, security, and configurations of refineries were rarely featured in the discussions about China's oil policy. To fill this gap, this paper explains the basics of refinery economics and technology, and details the development in China's refining industry since the early 1990s. By taking refineries into consideration, it then revisits and reassesses the

The 2016 decision to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to South Korea has generated multitude of intensely politicized issues and has proved highly controversial. This has made it challenging to alleviate, let alone clarify, points of analytical and policy tensions. We instead disaggregate and revisit two fundamental questions. One is whether THAAD could really defend South Korea from North Korean missiles. We challenge the conventional “qualified optimism” by giving analytical

When do sanctions succeed in nuclear inhibition? Is there a generalizable framework to estimate sanction effectiveness against nuclear aspirants? Instead of relying on partial equilibrium analysis, we conceptualize sanctions as three sequential phases—imposition of economic pain, conversation to political pressure, and creation (or failure thereof) of zone of possible agreement (ZOPA). The effectiveness of each phase is subject to phase-specific contextual variables, an aggregation of which help

본 논문은 국제정치학 핵군비통제 이론과 북미관계의 특수성을 고려하여 최근 정책적 관심이 모아지고 있는 북미핵군비통제의 실효성과 실현 가능성을 분석한다. 이를 위해 우선핵군비통제의 이론적 근거를 제시하고, 핵보유국 간 상호억지를 안정화시키기 위한 구조적군비통제와 위기안정성을 제고하기 위한 운용적 군비통제로 구분하여 그 작동원리와 기대효과를 설명한다. 다음으로 이와 같은 두 가지 형태의 핵군비통제가 북미관계에 적용가능한지 분석한다. 먼저 구조적 군비통제의 경우, 북미 간 현저한 핵전력의 불균형 때문에 실효성 있는 설계가 어려울 것으로 보이며, 실현 가능성 또한 낮을 것으로 판단된다. 반면 운용적 군비통제는 북한과 미국 사이 정보의 불확실성을 줄이고 위기 발생 시 외교적 해결을가능케 함으로써 핵전력의 불균형으로 발생하는 북미 간 위기 불안정성을 완화하는 데 실효성을 발휘할 것으로 보이며, 구조적 군비통제보다 실현 비용 또한 상대적으로 적을 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구는 이와 같은 분석을 통

Abstract What determines states’ willingness to institutionalize alliances? Contrary to conventional emphasis on system-level conditions, we argue that states pay close attention to the domestic political consequences of institutionalizing alliances. This is particularly true for unequal allies. Client regimes are disproportionately sensitive to alliance design, as it affects patron allies’ ability to influence their military, distribute finance and arms, and legitimate preferred political group

In the global economy led by the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), innovation is taking place in all fields around the keywords of Internet and digital. It is changing from an information society to a precisely connected network society. The knowledge and skills that have been accumulated over the years are becoming the basis for creating new values and competitiveness on companies. These movements have a great influence on a company's marketing strategy and core competencies. With a new parad

What accounts for the pace, timing, and scope of the U.S.–ROK alliance’s evolution? Through the prism of historical institutionalism, I construct a novel explanation for how the alliance, in particular its rule on operational control, has been subject to the confluence of internally generated dynamics, exogenous junctures, and historical processes. First, I illustrate how three crises—a coup in 1961, ROK forces deployment to Vietnam in 1965, and North Korea’s provocations in 1968—were instrument

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Abstract Oil is a double-edged sword in modern warfare for its usage enables greater firepower and mobility in combats while imposing tremendous operational and strategic burden to run and defend Wartime Fuel Network. The tension between the two generates a fuel dilemma, a consequential trade-off between fuel-powered capability and fuel sustainability. States facing the dilemma address it with three fuel management practices: minimalism, control, and gamble. I describe promises and pitfalls of e