심명규 교수

Can inflation anchoring foster growth? To answer this question, we use panel data on sectoral growth for 22 manufacturing industries from 39 advanced and emerging market economies over 1990–2014 and employ a difference-in-differences strategy based on the theoretical prediction that higher inflation uncertainty particularly depresses investment in industries that are more credit constrained. Industries characterized by high external financial dependence, liquidity needs, and R&D intensity, a

This paper analyses the macroeconomic consequences of a fiscal policy implemented in South Korea during COVID-19, ‘Korean Economic Impact Payment (KEIP)’ program, that aims to stimulate offline consumption. In doing so, we modify a SIR-macro model by explicitly distinguishing online- and offline consumption goods. Benchmark analysis predicts that (1) there are positive effects on key macro variables at the impact while progress of the epidemic hardly changes and (2) the transfer multiplier from

This paper aims to provide reliable estimates for labour supply elasticities in Korea. Following Bredemeier et al. (2019), we exploit information on a worker’s relative contribution to household earnings when estimating the Frisch labour supply elasticity to mitigate the downward bias in the presence of borrowing constraints. Using the Korean Labour and Income Panel Study data (2000–2018), we find that the labour supply elasticity in Korea is 0.23. In addition, elasticities are estimated to be 0

What is the source of job polarization in Korea? In this paper, we empirically examine if two competing hypotheses, a path-dependency hypothesis and an ageing hypothesis, can explain patterns of job polarization in Korea. By exploiting regional variations, we find that between 2008 and 2019, job polarization was more evident in regions in which routine workers were historically more important than non-routine workers (path-dependency) while ageing is not associated with the structural change in

Abstract This paper quantitatively examines which of the following three widely-used leaning-against-the-wind policies is effective in stabilizing aggregate fluctuations: i) a monetary policy that responds to the loan-to-GDP ratio, ii) a countercyclical LTV policy, and iii) a countercyclical capital requirement policy. In particular, we estimate a New Keynesian model with financial frictions using U.S. data and find that a monetary policy rule that responds positively to the loan-to-GDP ratio Am

Abstract This paper introduces ex ante information heterogeneity between players into an otherwise standard global game so that both a type with superior private information and that with inferior private information coexist. We first derive the condition under which a unique threshold equilibrium exists. We then show that less-informed (resp. more-informed) players are more likely to attack the regime than more-informed (resp. less-informed) players when (i) the fundamental is perceived to be w

Abstract Surprisingly, formal proof on the optimality of a linear decision rule in the discrete time AK model with a CRRA utility function has not been established in the growth literature while that in the continuous time counterpart is well-established. This note fills such a gap: I provide a formal proof that consumption being linearly related to investment is a sufficient and necessary condition for Pareto optimality in the discrete time AK model.